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February 1-10, 2004




(Quotes from Ed in Red)


Tue, 10 Feb 2004


Thoughts on Ultimate Puropse

see: Role of Speculators, Jan 31, 2004

From reading the January 31st post on the trader's role, I offer the following:


The question 'what is the ultimate purpose of trading?' is basically another way of asking "why".


The writer is looking for a cosmic answer, looking for Truth with a capital 'T'. A noble question, but one which, like all ‘why’ questions, ultimately does not resolve within the ‘why … because’ loop.


The memory-programmed part of the mind which asks "why" is not capable of understanding the ultimate answer, but only capable of asking more follow-up ‘why’ questions, likes kids do on long car trips, linking the memories of answers together.


Every 'why' question really boils down to "why am I in this situation?" but takes many forms: "why (a) did that stock go down (b) didn't my system work (c) am I here (d)  ... etc." 'Why' is essentially always a cry for liberation from one form of ignorance or another. As a vaccine for the burning feeling of ‘why’, one might ask oneself ‘why ask why?’

These deeper questions about life might be better addressed if some of humanity's basic intentions are unbundled. A straightforward way with ancient precedence is to declare four root intentions of human life: love, wealth, duty, and truth. So unbundled, answers become apparent:

Love: We don't trade to experience love. The market is not your girlfriend, wife, or mother, unless you had a very twisted mean mother. Fulfill this goal somewhere else.

Wealth: We trade for wealth The market is a place to fulfill this one goal. That's it. For wealth we can chop wood, carry water, make trades.

Duty: Each intends to fulfill societal duties. Each is in some situation where duties arise. One can also agree to additional duties. Duties to one's tribe, country, town, family, oneself. Not much to do with trading per se, except that fulfillment of the goal of wealth makes one able to then fulfill other duties in a grander way, and fulfilling duties keeps one’s mind clear enough and free of guilt so as to make better trading decisions. Right livelihood can be a part of duty, following our calling, or having a talent for one’s work, motivated from a deep vision of how one’s duty fits in with the world.

Truth: Finally, the goal of experiencing Truth is most seriously pursued by turning away from the marketplace which is always changing, looking for and finding That which is unchanging. Many express this search for ultimate truth by researching smaller truths: A trader, for example, looks for a holy grail system. A scientist, for example, manifests this human intention to find truth by looking for it in his science. He may discover many useful truths about his subject along the way, experience temporary fulfillment, on his way to the ultimate search and recovery of the truth about himself.

The FAQ writer is feeling the need to fulfill these other human goals in life, and is trying to see if that can be done through trading. Essentially, trading is one of the more fascinating ways to acquire wealth. Not love. Not duty. Not truth.

Parsing one's basic human urges and fulfilling each brings contentment, and undoes that mental frustration which arises when mismatching expectations, attempting to fulfill one intention through the means of another.

For example, another big confusion is when one seeks truth in love. That creates mismatched expectations too. Enjoy love in love. Love is warm and fuzzy. Truth is elsewhere.

Celebrate trading for what it is, a means of gathering wealth, an honorable goal, then get on with fulfilling other life goals.


Debugging and recompiling one’s personal operating system in this manner may lead to smoother multi-tasking threads of life’s experiential data flow, and provide a concluding return( ); of the 'why' mental loop. This is my understanding.

Trading for many is introspective, one-to-one with the screen, almost like a meditative monk in a cave.


A part of your genius, Ed, is your realization that many drawn to trading also have a strongly developed intention to find truth. You've developed psychological technology which yields tangible results. A fulfilling confluence of two of mankind's basic intentions which you've brilliantly integrated with TTP.

Yes, from intentions = results,


Your intention for trading is accumulating wealth, so your result of trading is accumulating wealth.

Fundamentalists are Whys Guys.


I see your four, maybe more.




Four of a Kind

beats two pair



Clip: http://www.earlyfishing.com/



Tue, 10 Feb 2004

Google Search on TT Site

Chief Ed,

Can you please consider implementing Google site-specific search on the TT site?

I find Google site-specific search extremely useful and convenient when implemented on a single site such as TT. I suspect many others do also.

I am eager to search many study-specific words and phrases (quickly) on the TT site.

Thanks for maintaining and building up the extremely thought-provoking TT writings.


Sounds right, and timely, too.  I wonder if you could study this, and suggest how to do it, what options to elect and how it can benefit FAQ readers.





Clip: www.google.com

Tue, 10 Feb 2004

More Kelly

see: Kelly, January 28, 2004

Hi Ed,

Let's try the coin flip example using my Kelly formula.

If heads, win $2.
If tails, lose $1.

Kelly = Average Trade / Average Win.

The average win is $2.
The average loss is $1.

The average trade is a win of $2 followed by a loss of $1 in 2 trades. So I gain a total of $1 every 2 trades. Therefore my average trade is $0.50. I may need to average a lot of trades to learn this.

$0.50 / $2 = 0.25 Kelly bet size.

You used $1 for average trade, but that is the average loss, not the average trade.

I get the same answer with variable bet size.

If heads win 2x the bet. If tails lose the bet.
Average trade is 0.5 times the bet. 0.5/2=0.25.

The statement, that the average trade is $.50, is ambiguous.


A trade is a transaction involving a series of steps. Fifty cents is an amount of money.  They can't be equal.


The ambiguity resolves with, for example, The Average Payoff of the trade is $.50.  The Bet of the trade is $1.00.


Note that the Kelly  solution, a 25% bet size, is far larger than industry standard.


When you factor in the organic part of your trading system, you might come up with a much lower, more palatable solution.




Make Sure The Additional Risk

Makes Sense


Clip: http://www.maertens2.com/


Tue, 10 Feb 2004

Radial Momentum FAQ

Dear Ed,

although I'm neither physicist nor mathematician or engineer, I really find
your theory of "Radial Momentum Accounting for Lift" very interesting. That said, I think the e-mail from June 17th, 2003 from "A University Physicist" is exceptionally repelling.


(See: http://www.seykota.com/


(Quote) "I am not saying that the small effect is non-existent. I am just saying that, being small, it is not very interesting, and this is why nobody cares ... You may think that this tendency to idealization and neglect of small features of the reality in the favor of clarity and simplicity is just my personal trait. First of all, this is indeed my trait, and I am happy about that. Second, this is the very essence of science. The scientist who can do this idealization and abstraction from non-essential features the best - is the best scientist (the same in trading). This is not just my personal view, but, rather, I would think, view of scientific community ... "

For me this viewpoint suspiciously smells like Karl Popper's Immunizing Stratagem at work: The Bernoulli Principle applied to the accounting for lift doesn't quite work. So you just neglect "small features of reality in the favor of clarity" and alas, the theory becomes immune to refutation. As it now cannot be refuted, it proves valid, right? Now how's that for a scientific approach?

I also think the writer's reference to trading is quite telling and this coincides with an observation I often make with clients who have an academic background.


The more thorough (or better) it is, the more difficult it sometimes seems to be to transport even the most simplest principles (such as trend following?).


Instead they like to retort to fundamental analysis (which has it's merits, stocks have to be priced and sold to be available on the market in the first place, but that's another story) and a great number of other complex strategies.


The greater the number of unknowns and variables, the more difficult it obviously becomes to refute or falsify a strategy, thereby creating the illusion of it becoming valid. "Small features of reality" are again "neglected in the favor of clarity". I just love it.


Fortunately, a whole industry caters to people with the tendency to see the world like that, which undoubtedly has other economical merits. So it has a good side as well, after all.

Thank you, Mr. Seykota for your work and inspiration and for sharing it so

Best regards

Trend Following and Radial Momentum Theory both hold that things in motion tend to stay in motion.


Radial Momentum Theory confronts  the physics of lift that appears in most high school and college physics texts, and on the FAA exam.


Conventional wisdom uses Bernoulli's Principle to explain lift; I claim it just does not apply.




Bernoulli holds only for air that is non-compressible, as do tractable versions of Navier-Stokes Equation.


Radial Momentum Theory claims that compressibility is at the very heart of the lift phenomena.




Part of the persistence of Bernoulli in lift physics is that there is, until now, no replacement theory for it.  Another part is political inertia.


Basic Science  (the deep core  stuff) changes very slowly.  I suppose that in about 30 years -  enough time for young scientists to replace the establishment - Radial Momentum Theory may find a place in the textbooks.


Cultural beliefs and myths give flavor and charm to a society.






You must become the change

you wish to see in the world.



Clip: http://www.abundantworld.com/


Tue, 10 Feb 2004

Celebrating Losing

Dear Sir,

When you wrote:
Also, you might wonder if you like the markets running your personal life - as you can only do fun things, like snorkeling, when the markets are up.

It resonates with me. All of a sudden, it all makes sense. Accepting, embracing, celebrating losses make sense. In fact, that night, I watch a Poker tournament on TV. Since we can actually see what the cards the players are holding, there is that one memorable hand where I am saying in my mind to the player (on second thought, I may be saying this to myself), "Fold ... fold ... fold ... it's a trap ... fold ... don't call ... the only way you can win is to fold."

That's when it strikes me - the only way you can win is to fold. That is the first time I feel complete celebration with losses. You win by folding.

However, after the "Aha", I become confused. I think I am moving to the
other extreme: If I celebrate losing, enjoy losing, embrace losing, will I just end up losing, by mere self-fulfilling prophecy? If I love losing so much, wouldn't I, one way or the other, get myself to losing so that I win? That isn't what I want though.

Would you please kindly clarify? Thanks.

Your intention to win in the long run might include the willingness to take small losses in the short run.


Aversion to loss can lead to:


holding on to loss (in hopes of  repair)


holding on to memory of loss (rather than getting back in the saddle)


Experiencing loss (and seeing its positive intentions) can be part of the process of minimizing loss, in both your trading account and your psyche.



Expressing Loss in Song


You are my Sunshine,

my only sunshine

you make me happy

when skies are grey ...


... and now you've left me

and found another

you have shattered all my dreams.


Clip: http://skywise.critter.net/


Mon, 9 Feb 2004


Hi Ed,

My trading is improving day by day with my hard work and the help of my Trading Tribe. My awareness of feelings (both mine and others) is strengthening and I notice some interesting personal characteristics. I judge less and listen better. I communicate clearer. I enjoy the learning process.

Thank you for the laugh on "The Younger Days" post on 30 Jan 2004.

Yours truly,


Mon, 9 Feb 2004

Primate Programming

Chief Ed,

It appears you have a very immediate, well-developed sense of humor. Accordingly I think you might enjoy my little web project.



If your company succeeds in displacing humanoid programmers with primates,  you might expect strong lobbying efforts to protect the status quo.


This might appear in typical political disguise.


Look for an Animals Rights to Fair Wages initiative.



Amphibious System Designers


know how to get the bugs out



Clip: http://www.maertens2.com/


Mon, 9 Feb 2004

TTP and Trend Following

Chief Ed,

I believe it is likely true that a very highly skilled TTP Receiver is also likely to be a very highly skilled Trend Follower, and vice versa. Is this correct?

I believe it is likely true that Trend Following is truly excellent practice for developing great TTP Receiving skills, and vice versa. Is this correct?

TTP is a Trend Following approach to communication.


Correctness is incidental to TTP.



Sun, 8 Feb 2004

TTP & Parenting


It seems in parenting that I seek to experience my repressed feelings by recreating them in my children.


I am not certain if that is a significant distinction, or if it even matters.


I recall times in the past when I spanked my children and felt satisfaction as I witnessed their fear and sadness.


A fear and sadness common in my childhood. I am beginning to see how efficient I am at enabling in them the behaviors and feelings which I judge very negatively.

Awareness always seem to be the first step. Experiencing and accepting the feelings is next. To the extent I feel trepidation in doing so is the extent to which I hold them in judgment.


Congratulations on your willingness to see this, to experience it and to disappear it. 


As it disappears, you and your family stand to gain greatly.



Spankings get Handed Down

from Generation to Generation.


Fully experiencing spanking

is one way to break the cycle.



Clip: http://www.angelfire.com/comics/


Sun, 8 Feb 2004

What markets do you trade?


Sun, 8 Feb 2004


Ed Says: ...what do you propose to measure to determine your own stick-to-it-iv-ness.


Throughout your site you emphasize how important it is sticking to the system. I notice this same theme among other seasoned traders. So, most important factors in a trading system are likely in this order:

Risk Management
Going with trend (this entails cutting losses short)

Yet it seems that I am doing the reverse path: started out with fundamental analysis, shifted to and still apply myself quite a lot to technical analysis, and now I am starting to implement risk management ... So, I guess I am almost there, not there now though. :(


You might consider taking the feeling of "not there now" into the process as a starting point.

Sat, 7 Feb 2004


Dear Ed,

The more I practice TTP, the less I have to say.

Consistent with your self pro-claimed intention, TTP itself might one day dissolve into just another of my passing AHA's - providing yet another proof of results = intentions.

Hoo-Woo: Celebrating a Homer


Woo-Hoo: A Homer Celebrating









Yes, to the extent you mirror the substance, tone and texture of FAQ, you help create it's disappearance.


Experience the Dot


and notice the haze vanish




Clip: http://redwood.ucdavis.edu/bruno/



Sat, 7 Feb 2004


Too Much to be Interesting


Ed Says:


"To be a good trader, you have to be good at doing nothing."

"Reveal enough to make it interesting, not enough to make it boring."

You're revealing too much about trading to make it interesting, Chief.

Very interesting !


Making trading interesting, or not, is incidental to FAQ.

Sat, 07 Feb 2004


Opportunities and Awareness

Sometimes we are sitting on top of great opportunities in commodities and we aren't even aware of it.



Texas toilet
starts gushing oil


Woman returns to crude-covered home


Clip: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/


Thanks for flushing out the facts on this one.


Luckily, there's no match for it, or it could become a real hot seat.

Sat, 7 Feb 2004

TTP in Portuguese


I have made a translation for the Process, into Portuguese, at [URL].


It's a bona fide free translation, including the proclamations "I like to be free, the Free Enterprise System and Capitalism; I like to profit, to save money and I do not get into debt."

I wish to run a similar site like yours and progressively translate other contents, like risk management, and also keep a running FAQ. Please let me know the guidelines about copyright permission, disclosures and certification as applicable.


I am unable to locate your site.

Fri, 6 Feb 2004

Amygdala, TTP and Non-Verbal Studies

Mr. Seykota / Chief Ed,

I thought you might be pleased to see this intriguing web site I found as a result of searching just one word on the TT site, the word is "amygdala".

It's a very interesting page:




... is under, and leads to: The Center For Non Verbal Studies (overall) Home



Thanks for the TT site: the content is extremely interesting and useful to me.


Fri, 6 Feb 2004


New Haven Update

Mr. Seykota,

Also could you please update the New Haven tribe listing with [our new email].

Thanks Again,


Date: Fri, 6 Feb 2004


Anonymous Contributors

Dear Mr. Seykota,

I was reading over the FAQ and saw a mention on the 1/30 section of a guy in New Haven looking for a tribe to join.

I'm interested in getting one going. I let the old email expire (listed on the TT web for the New Haven tribe) and have since created this new one to handle TT related stuff. Could you please get that fellow in touch with me? Pass his email along please? I'll check this mail once a week from now on to make sure I do not miss anyone.


Contributors to FAQ are anonymous. I do not release their names or forward mail to them.




FAQ Contributor Profile:





Clip: http://www.doppelpunkt-pe.de/


Fri, 6 Feb 2004


Why Get Slaughtered

Dear Mr. Seykota,

Why be a trend follower when "followers" in general get slaughtered?


I hardly believe in the instinct of a player and I strongly disagree with what some people say about being given the key to inspect the market by someone who already has it, like for instance the "turtles."  (a couple of clones who inherited a wizard's secrets).


Do you really believe that someone may learn how to be a trader without having the instinct in him?

I am only 20 years old, I still study in college and pay my tuition, I have traded for about 2 years now and I have spent hundreds of hours analyzing the weaknesses and the strengths of the market (parallel and opposite indicators, reverse effects etc.) but what troubles me is the fact that I feel like I haven't shaped any solid boundaries yet because I don't know how to shape them.


Mr. Seykota, what should I do in order to become more technical and critical in terms of speculating and choosing stocks? I have made some very interesting picks during my trading carrier but I still fell like a hog who might get slaughtered any time.


What should I do, where should I begin? What I want is to be able to spectate the system (market) without being part of it like just another sheep that throws darts on a board.

Thank You

TTP avoids use of the "Why's Guy's" word, why.


You don't post any evidence for your premise that followers get slaughtered.


You might take your anxiety about following and getting slaughtered into TTP, as a starting point.




Bridge / Slaughter House

(Builder unknown, c1872)



Clip: http://www.virtualvermont.com/





Fri, 6 Feb 2004

Tales from the DIM  Process

(D-o I-t M-yself, without a Tribe)

I find no happy judge Doing It Myself. I locate feelings and judge them to be uncomfortable.


I accept the discomfort and attempt to focus on the physical properties of the feeling. I find it very difficult. I frequently drift off into memories and visual images that seem to accompany the experience.


These memories and images often point me to episodes, whether real or imagined, that alert me to my moral weakness. That is, the feelings I judge to be ‘bad’ seem to be ones in which I give in to pride, vanity, deceit, coveted ness.


It seems that the positive intention of some of my feelings is to keep me on the path of moral righteousness.

I’ve managed to open up a big can of worms with the DIM Process. I am quite Judgmental.

I cannot tell whether I am making my situation worse in the absence of a tribe or adding to my drama. I am committed to experiencing my feelings, yet I acknowledge how much limitation there is utilizing the DIM Process.


Perhaps my drama is attempting to accomplish an unrealistic endeavor. Hmmm, I wonder if my trading performance expectations are a part of this drama. It would certainly explain my propensity towards high risk.

I commit to attending the next workshop.


Yes, trying to do it all by yourself may layer-on more judgment.


Your Tribe can encourage you, validate your feelings, and help you find positive intentions for the feelings you don't like.




Pride, and Your Other Feelings


can have Positive Intentions


Clip: http://www.barnsley-bs.co.uk/



Fri, 6 Feb 2004


ref: System Returns

"Core Equity goes from 20,000,000 to 120,000,000 in one day"

Sounds about right. It's linked to the drama of being poor one day and wanting to be rich the next.

"your Sharpe Ratio is zero"

Commented out. Waste of time.

With your approach to programming, you might be able to hire on professionally. See: Primate Programming, above.

Fri, 6 Feb 2004


Feeling Void and Empty

Hello Ed,

I have a tribe member who when I start TTP describes his feelings as being void and empty inside. I am finding it somewhat difficult to amplify his feelings and have him fully experience them. Would you have a suggestion how to work with this person?

Typically when I work with TTP, a person will describe a feeling as physical manifestation in his body, for example a knot in the pit of the stomach or tension in left shoulder. So I ask him to amplify the feeling of tension in his stomach, I parse it for texture, temperature, color etc help him further develop it.

Here is a typical exchange in a hardball session with this person feeling void.

Receiver: X what stands between you and Y (goal)?

Sender: I am feeling void, empty inside

R: I am not feeling void or empty, could you show me how to feel void and empty.

S: I feel nothing inside

R: how do you do that, what does nothing feel like

S: I just feel void, no feeling, no sensations

R: what does void feel like, what is the color, is it warm or cold

S; No color, no temperature, just feeling blank

R: If I were to feel blank how would I do that

S: there is just nothing, total silence, feeling void ...

Thanks for your help.

Your insistence that "void" have a color or temperature may indicate unwillingness on your part to go to "void" with the sender. 


You might try these:


Just be there, endlessly, with void, for an indeterminately long moment of now. That's kind of how "void" is.


Or, validate, with: "Great, keep coming up with more ways to avoid going into your feelings."


Or, ask the sender if he is willing to experience "void."  If he says yes, encourage him to act out the experience of "void." If he says no, ask him to locate the judge (feeling) that holds that unwillingness.


A stuck sender indicates a stuck receiver, and an opportunity for both to work through the issue. 


In tribes with several members, others can step in and receive the stuck-ness from both the sender and receiver.


To escape the Void



a void dance.



Clip: www.kurthalsey.com/drawings/void.jpg

Thu, 5 Feb 2004


Mr. Seykota,

My friend ...  and I sit in a 10 x 15 office all trading hours long. We break for the golf course after this.

We are probably acting more like gamblers than traders. We do not like that about ourselves.

We live in Naples, Florida and would make the pilgrimage to Nevada. Do you offer seminars?

We'll await your response.

Traders and Gamblers have a place, especially in Nevada.



To hear a question to Pilgrims

about uneasy feelings,

Click Here


For directions to Nevada

from Florida,

and things to do,

Click Here



I am now planning to deliver another seminar, sometime this year.  If you can't wait until then, you can take your feelings of impatience into TTP - or see about Private Consulting at the bottom of the FAQ Home Page.


Clip: http://www.wavsource.com/


Thu, 5 Feb 2004



The greatest good you can do for another is not just to share your riches, but to reveal to him his own. - Benjamin Disraeli


I read this quote this morning in my Innerworth letter ... and I thought of you. Thanks for everything ...





Benjamin Disraeli


In Support of Chartists

and Corn Laws


Clip: http://www.lib.utexas.edu/


Thu, 5 Feb 2004


Thu, 21 Aug 2003

Ed Says:


"In general, over the life of a winning trade, long positions increase in volatility while short positions decrease in volatility.

So, for equal price moves, the long trade has a higher signal-to-noise ratio at inception."

Does the above hold true for equities as well as commodities? Collectively, Fear is the primary motivator for long positions in commodities; Hope is the primary motivator for long positions in stocks .. and vise-versa. Which asset does the above comment refer to?

I don't know of any study about a fear / hope : commodities / stocks model.


My comment derives from volatility being proportional to price.

Thu, 5 Feb 2004

Dynamic Indicator


I am looking for algorithms that can dynamically calculate the optimal bet
size (I'm using fixed fraction) depending on the recent upside volatility. I envisage that as the upside volatility increases, then so will the bet size. Also, with high upside volatility the ATR stop could be reduced slightly. Ideally, I'd like to end up with a table, something like this:

Upside Volatility - where 1 denotes that all movement is on the upside.

Upside Volatility = 0.5 - 0.59; Optimal betsize = 2%; Stop ATR = 2 ATR
Upside Volatility = 0.6 - 0.69; Optimal betsize = 3%; Stop ATR = 1 3/4 ATR
Upside Volatility = 0.7 - 0.79; Optimal betsize = 4%; Stop ATR = 1 1/2 ATR

Etc etc.

Could you point me in the right direction?

Positioning is a function of the rest of your trading system. 


You can get some indications of what is right for you by simulations.

Thu, 05 Feb 2004


Fort Lauderdale Tribe






Fort Lauderdale !


See: Tribe Directory




Life is a Beach



Clip: http://www.usmusicvault.com/


Wed, 4 Feb 2004


The Rules For Being Human

Hi Ed !

On seeing this I think of TTP

The Rules For Being Human
by Cherie Carter-Scott

1. You will receive a body. You may like it or hate it, but it will be yours for the entire period of this time around.

2. You will learn lessons. You are enrolled in a full-time informal school called Life. Each day in this school you will have the opportunity to learn lessons. You may like the lessons or think them irrelevant and stupid.

3. There are no mistakes, only lessons.
Growth is a process of trial and error: Experimentation. The "failed" experiments are as much a part of the process as the experiment that ultimately "works."

4. A lesson is repeated until learned. A lesson will be presented to you in various forms until you have learned it. When you have learned it, you can then go on to the next lesson.

5. Learning lessons does not end. There is no part of life that does not contain its lessons. If you are alive, there are lessons to be learned.

6. "There" is no better than "here." When your "there" has become "here," you will simply obtain another "there" that will again look better than "here."

7. Others are merely mirrors of you. You cannot love or hate something about another person unless it reflects something you love or hate about yourself.

8. What you make of your life is up to you.
You have all the tools and resources you need. What you do with them is up to you. The choice is yours.

9. Your answers lie inside you. The answers to Life's questions lie inside you. All you need to do is look, listen, and trust.

10. You will forget all this.

How about adding a # 6. b: There is no other time than now.

Wed, 4 Feb 2004


Risk - Another Opportunity

Hi Ed !

I was particularly attracted to the first sentence of the last paragraph of the article on LIVING DANGEROUSLY:

One of the trickiest problems in dealing with an uncertain future is people's seemingly irrational response to it.

Rationality is incidental to Trend Following.

Wed, 4 Feb


Trading Mistakes

Overtrading ...

I trade intraday breakouts, a real simple system: trade 55 periods breakouts on 5 min charts, take a stop (test it) and get out just before the close ... it works on a lot of futures, so I am satisfied with it.

When you follow a system sometimes you get bored ... 4 or 5 years ago I traded only discretionarily and was a "break-even" trader, with a lot of "concentration" stress.

You watch the system do its work, and you get bored, so you think: well I see an (arbitrageur) opportunity and enter the market with a stop.

Then you lose, again, you lose again, again and again, you don't accept the loss and you keep on seeing new chances to make money.

In the meanwhile your (my) system took only one trade with a profit. But because I was overtrading it didn't help. My system made 7% last month, and my result
was -8%.

I think it is the best that you lose in those circumstances, because than you will not become overconfident and you realize quickly to return to your (boring, but profitable) systems ... It takes perhaps 3 months to get on the same level as 1 January ... that is difficult too.

I hope I help some of your readers Ed.

Best Regards,

I don't know how to test a stop without executing it.


When you are willing to experience boredom, it passes through. 


When you are unwilling to experience boredom, Fred finds ways to make your life interesting.




Invitation to Fred



Clip: http://www.football-crazy.de/



Tue, 3 Feb 2004

Visit to NYC - All Day Session

Hi Ed,

The New York City tribes had an all day TTP / Hardball session this past Saturday. I have been in email correspondence with ... the Chief of one of the NYC intentional communities, and he graciously invited me to come up from Austin for the session. Since the Austin group is new and rather inexperienced I thought there would be a lot of value, both personally and for the Austin tribe, in interacting with a more established group. I did attend, and I am writing to report to you and FAQ the experiences of that day.

It is 10:00 a.m. Saturday morning, a cold clear New York day. We gather in a studio space provided by one of the tribe leaders. We make our introductions and begin to get to know one another while waiting for all the participants to arrive. Once everyone is gathered we proceed to check in and then divide into smaller groups and work on our dream snapshots.

Dream Work is invigorating as we, in turn, send and receive to help one another clarify the core feelings, sensations, and visualizations that the dream embodies. I feel that I now have a clear vision and feeling of my "dream state". I have a name for my dream, and I can experience it presently just by recalling that "label". It is as if I have it on file and can experience the feeling of having my dream by simply pulling the file and opening it up. I am working toward having that particular file constantly open in the background of my experience at all times. Amazing.

After the dream work we break for lunch. When we come back in the afternoon it is time to play Hardball. We again break into a few groups (different ones from the morning groups) and begin the Hardball Process. This is really an eye opening experience. I think I got as much from receiving others as I did being on the hot seat myself. I thought I had worked out my goal very clearly in advance, and I would breeze through the session without much alteration to my goal. Through the process I realized that my "goal" is merely a safe harbor and distraction from what stands between me and my real goal. I thought that I wanted to accomplish one thing. In retrospect, I have really accomplished that already, so it felt very comfortable to have that as a goal. There is another set of feelings standing between me and my actual goal. Through the Hardball Process I experience those feelings and now I am free to focus my intention on my goal.

I give a big thanks to every NYC Tribe member. The experience was more than I expected and it is great to know you all. I have much to experience with my Tribe here in Austin thanks to you. What a wonderful
thing this is.

Every Tribe has its own way.


Cross-pollination between Tribes is a good way to share methods and extend the work.






Clip: www.nestbox.com/ digital.htm

Wed, 04 Feb 2004

More Questons

see: Questions Jan 16, 04

Dear Mr. Seykota,


Ed Says: 3. The market conditions are: up; down; sideways. The appropriate
corresponding trading postures are: long; short; out.

How can you catch the trend being out of the market? I hope you are well. As always: thank you for FAQ.

If the trend is already in progress, one way to get on board is to enter a stop order just outside the recent trading range.


If a trend is not currently in process, you can enter a stop order outside the long-term trading range.



Trend Followers


buy on penetration of resistance,

sell on penetration of support


 and ignore targets.


Clip: www.incrediblecharts.com

Wed, 4 Feb 2004


Useful Gauge

Hi Ed !

Here's a useful gauge for trading dashboards if there is no more precise measurement available.



Other popular feeling meters are the neck, the forehead and the gut.




Scientific Investigation


of Experience Storage Sites


Clip: www.ozone8.com/


Wed, 04 Feb 2004


TT Phoenix


The Arizona Trading Tribe is currently a tribe of two. [Name] and I met for the first time yesterday and discussed our understanding of TTP. We will be holding our first TT meeting on 2/13/04.

If you are able to include this information in your next FAQ that would be great. Additionally, if you have any words of wisdom for us they would be appreciated.


Congratulations on getting a Tribe up and running.


For words of wisdom and stimulating questions, see contributions on the left side of the FAQ pages.





Wed, 4 Feb 2004

Two Silly Observations

1) FAQ = Frequently Asked Questions is passive tense as it masks the persons
who are asking the questions

2) TTP is also a stock (Titan Pharmaceuticals) traded on the AMEX. It rose from $1.5 in Jan 03 to a high around $4.5 in Jan 04.

1) The S in SVO-p refers to the subject of the sentence, not the name of the author.


2) I find no quotes for symbol, FAQ.


Mon, 2 Feb 2004


Man or Machine

Dear Mr. Seykota,

First, I would like to thank you for all that you are doing! I just recently joined the Salem, Oregon Tribe and we just had our first "hot seat" meeting last Saturday. I have two questions:

Do you have or are there materials available that will help us to be proper receivers and senders? I want to get the most out of it and would appreciate any guidance or additional direction.

Secondly - once a person has put Fred into place, are a lot of the systems out there sufficient or are only a small number of them actually successful over the long haul.


I would hate to get Fred in his place and then trade on a flawed system or indicator. I like support and resistance lines, EMA's, Bollinger Bands, that sort of thing.

Please advise -

Thanks again and may you find what you seek.

You can find a lot of material on this site.  I am now working on a book about TTP, for publication later this year.


One of the best ways to master receiving is to keep trading roles, sending and receiving, in your tribe meetings.


The place in which you might put Fred is in close communion with CM.


Mostly, people use their systems to deliver what they really want.


Mon, 2 Feb 2004

An AHA about AHA's

Dear Mr. Seykota,

I am here to happily report my very sore muscles, thanks to Hardball / TTP.

Even though it is so sore that I just want to be nothing but a couch-potato. I am excited about the experience. I feel that this is an important step towards celebrating all my feelings, "good" or "bad."

I am wondering, however, is there an "Aha"? Hmmm, I can't think of any. I am guessing that TTP is not just about Aha, perhaps it is the process that counts? Just like sex, it is not only about orgasm, but more importantly enjoying the process? (Sorry, I can't think of other examples) Is this already an aha?

When Fred and CM connect, you may experience a momentary AHA and a flash of insight.

Mon, 02 Feb 2004

2004 Proclamations Update -

and typo correction

I wish to correct several typos in my previous submission. As there are several, I will resubmit the entire letter below.


I will also take into consideration your yet to be made suggestion of examining my feelings concerning thoroughness and taking the time to do things properly.


Dear Ed,

As always, I give my permission to publish all, some, or none of the following: I am writing in to give an update to my 2004 proclamation.

Similar to my equity curve, my commitment to my proclamation experiences some drawdowns, but overall the trend is UP.

I am one of the tribal chiefs who are waiting for a tribe to appear, so I am not yet able to enjoy the process in a group setting. My understanding of the Tribe and the process comes from reading FAQ. Before I started my tribe, I had feelings of nervousness and trepidation about what would happen / what if no one shows up? (Tightness around the chest & tingling like little needles across the back of my neck, skin tightening along my forearms.)

I believe intentions = results.

So I start my tribe and almost instantaneously find my answer.

I am a part of tribe, currently a tribe on one. I am a part of another tribe, my family. I am also a subset of a larger tribe, the community I live in. In this way I am also part of the tribe that is FAQ.

Allowing myself to feel the fear of being a tribe of one, (by taking the action and directly experiencing the feeling) also has allowed me to experience the joy of being a tribe of one.

I don't mean to sound trite about this; but it has been profound for me. As soon as I allow myself to feel the feeling (hit ENTER to send email) I move on to the next emotion. I feel I am a tribe of one. I am a trader, and I follow trends. All of these feelings feel good to me. The tingling in my neck, arms and chest pass, and is replaced by a feeling of lightness. Less gravity is the best I can say it. I could go on but I think I have made my point. I offer this to the community in that it may help someone else who is on the verge of declaring their tribal affiliation. I have received many insights from reading FAQ and I wish to contribute.

On a related note: Since I resolve the drama of wanting to be part of a tribe, I am moving on to new feelings. Being a good receiver is something I practice now continually. I originally think I need to be a good receiver so I will recognize my tribe when we meet. The unintended consequence is so much more wonderful! My tribe is still out there in the non-existent future. I am here receiving what is in front of me in the present. And as Maxwell Smart used to say, "and loving it". There have been many small AHA's from receiving my family and community. There is great joy for me in noting how easy this is, once I stand aside and let it happen. I also  notice that the people I encounter seem much happier to be received.

Lastly, I offer up the example of the traffic lights. Specifically, the cross-walk indicators. Another of my proclamations is to be true to my system and follow signals.


Upon deciding to receive my surroundings in their entirety, I discover that the cross-walks are talking to me. As we are all aware, they talk to everyone but most people don't listen - they just cross when they see and perceive an opportunity. I believe this is how most people trade. But I have a system and sticking to the signals is a big part of it. So I resolve to pay attention to the signals and follow them. So easy to say, so hard to do. Until it isn't.


In the beginning I stare at the signal, waiting for it to turn green. As you would expect, people all around me jump the signal and start to cross. One goes, then two more, then five. It is herd mentality at work. I feel the crowd working on me, urging me to violate my signals. To me it feels like being at the beach in the water facing the shore, and a wave comes along behind pushing me along with the crowd.


By experiencing the signal, I feel the crowd. I let myself feel the pressure on the back of my legs. I practice. I look forward to signals for a chance to practice my "signal - patience".


I celebrate the pressure on the back of my legs. It becomes easier, and the tension passes. I like waiting for signals now. I still feel the pressure on the back of my legs when the crowd starts to move, but
it is not as intense, and I feel lighter while I wait. “ Less gravity," again.

I feel this particular exercise has directly helped my trading. I think so because my equity curve says so. All of this without attending a single tribe meeting! I can only imagine what is to be gained from a tribe to share the process with.

As always, thank you for the work you put into FAQ.

Warmest regards,

Yes, you can practice receiving, just in the process of life itself.


Attending another tribe for a while and attending a workshop are other ways to get the hang of the process.




Sun, 1 Feb 2004

Family Tribe


Ed Says: When you release having to control others, you set yourself free.


Ed, yesterday we made our eighth meeting and feelings started to flow. As I grant complete freedom to others I start to find freedom for myself. Thanks.

Your remark is quite punctual as I happen to be involved in a long-standing recurring power struggle drama with someone else.


We have very strong views, opinions and sheer determination for a quite balanced and tied match.

You might consider what is standing between you and converting your power struggle (pushing against someone) into personal power (pushing with someone).




Plenty of Power


when you work together


Clip: www.pighealth.com/ welfare.htm