© Ed Seykota, 2003 - 2004 ... Write for permission to reprint.

Ed Seykota's

Frequently Asked Questions

FAQ Index & Ground Rules  ...  Tribe Directory - How to Join

TTP - The Trading Tribe Process  ...  Glossary

Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Answers

Fri, 10 Sep 2004

Although I typically edit sends, this one stands exactly as is.

No adjective before proper name.

Missing question mark after Could you.

No adjective before wider.

Likely typos at  then. tough and and.

I wonder if the missing item # 11 might be:

11) Purposeful ambiguity, in order to engage others in a game of "Hey, that's not what I mean."

People Who are Unwilling

to create clear communication

sometimes send inaccurate messages

to justify feeling indignant

about the response.

Clip: http://reachthecolors.com/

Fri, 10 Sep 2004

PPR rule

please give some explanation / example regarding Private Property Rule and children.

Private Property Rules for Children:

1.  Every toy in and around the home has one and only one owner.

2.  If you are the owner, you may do whatever you want with the toy.

3.  If you are not the owner, you may not touch the toy without permission from the owner.

Implementation of PPR eliminates most of the conflicts between family members.

Typical Violations of PPR:

1.  A parent gives a toy to two children and tells them to share it.  Consequence:  Since a child cannot award a share of something he does not own, the kids first have to determine ownership.  The default way to determine ownership is to fight.

2.  A parent scolds a child for destroying a toy, taking it apart, etc.  Consequence: This sends an ambiguous message to the child about who really owns it, about his ability to make decisions and about his own sovereignty.

3.  A parent disciplines a child by taking away a toy.  Consequence: This sends an ambiguous message to the child about the sanctity of private property.

Family

The Essential Tribe

A child's self-esteem

forms early.

Clip: http://www.childrensmemorial.org/

parents/new_images/fam007.jpg

Fri, 10 Sep 2004

Sprechen Sie Deutsch

Dear Mr. Seykota,

... I am writing to you from Germany.

I am trading the markets since 1998 with no visible success.

I am reading your homepage since two year and I find it great, that you doing this job.

I would like to attend your workshop but I have a problem, my English is not good,
maybe it is enough for simple conversation but I am not sure it is enough good to attend your workshop.

Do you plan any seminar in Germany or Europe with translation in German, if not what do you recommend me.

Should I attend to your seminar with my bad English?

Thanks for your help.

FAQ does not tell people what they should do - see Ground Rules, above.

At this point, I have no plan to deliver the Workshop in German.

You may attend with your English - or leave it at home and come by yourself.

Fri, 10 Sep 2004

Trading tribe in Philladelphia

Hello Ed,

What can I do to set up a Trading Tribe in Philly?

See Tribe Directory, above.

Thu, 9 Sep 2004

Our Conversation July 2:

The Private Property Rule

Hi Ed,


I want to follow up with you since our telephone conversation. If you recall I called seeking guidance on PPR (Private Property Rule) with regards to verbal abuse between an older brother and a younger sister.

You walked me through a number of scenarios and suggested how to approach different situations. I was amazed how much time you spent with me and how much you genuinely cared.

You also suggested that there is still “something” that you were unaware of that was probably bothering the older brother. (You were right).

Our family had something close to the PPR rule but it was more complicated so we streamlined our rule down to almost exactly the PPR rule. I then discovered or my wife discovered what was really bothering the older brother.

Unknown to us the younger sister had previously verbally abused the older brother usually days earlier and he hadn’t told us what had previously transpired. We then suggested to him that he communicate with us when his younger sister said something to him (what we call a zinger, not a nice word, mocking or laughing at him).

Since then he has become much better at telling us what he is feeling and what his younger sister had previously said. This has caused him to be a lot less frustrated and the bickering between him and his sister has decreased dramatically.

My wife at the beginning of the process was not committed to PPR and we had a number of fights. But after we both calmed down I explained to her the concepts but more important I demonstrated the concepts with my own openness and actions.

She also saw the improvement with our children. All the kids have gotten better at being more open, responsive and most important more respectful to one another. As I am sure you are aware it isn’t perfect but we continue to be a work in progress and we are improving thanks to you.

On a separate note I am waiting with anticipation for your book. If there is anything I can do to help with the book do not hesitate to call.

Yes.

Private Property Rule

It works in the Forest.

It works in the Home.

Hint: don't tell any politicians about it

or they might have to abandon

graduating taxation

and flat taxation

in favor of voluntary taxation.

Clip: http://www.newtonconservators.org/

photos/kennard/private.jpg

Tue, 7 Sep 2004

Hakomi Method

I took a look at the Trading Tribe website and it sounds pretty interesting. It also took me about 20 minutes to "get it". It wasn't what I was expecting but I am game for any approach. Actually I was talking to a
friend about TT and he said it reminded him of the Hakomi method.

In Hakomi you "build a therapist-client relationship which maximizes safety and partnership and works directly with the unconscious in cooperation with the conscious mind." -- Hakomi Website

 
In TTP you create a space in which people can get in touch with and repatriate disenfranchised forms, wherever they lead. 

Hakomi has a therapist whereas TTP builds a space.  Hakomi values safety, non-violence, partnership, and mindfulness, whereas TTP views these as incidental. 
 
TTP seems compatible with other forms of spiritual growth including Hakomi.

Ron Kurtz

The word "Hakomi" came to me in a dream.  We Searched for the meaning and found it was a Hopi word meaning "who are you?"

-- Ron Kurtz

Tue, 7 Sep 2004

Sitting out of Choppy Waters?

Dear Sir,

Ed Says" "Choppy Waters tend to discourage all but the most stalwart
sailors" (nice picture BTW)

My immediate thought is a picture of you - the most stalwart sailor (hmmm, trend follower) I ever know - bravely riding the boat (as shown in the picture), conquering the bumpy water.

Just now as I look at the picture again though, under the condition of choppy waters, would you suggest even the most stalwart sailors to stay out of it?

For I remember reading something like, "You make the big money using your other end ... sitting tight on winning positions ... and sitting out choppy markets." (FAQ Mar '03)

Or do choppy waters provide the most rewards (as in Forrest Gump who caught a lot of shrimps because of the choppy waters)?

Thanks for the sharing of your experience.

The storm destroys the other shrimp boats, so Forrest Gump and the Captain gain an edge - after the storm.

Similarly, choppy markets discourage many trend followers and set the stage for the surviving trend followers to enjoy smooth trending markets.

One Way to Harvest Shrimp

is to put up your boat,

take a vacation,

sit in a nice restaurant,

enjoy a shrimp cocktail

and wait for calm seas to return.

Clip: http://bubbagumpshrimp.

breckenridgefanatic.com/

Tue, 7 Sep 2004

It's Time Again

Hi Ed,

You said " I don't think time exists" You say there is NOW. There are different instances of NOW, but there is no time? How can you tell that when you are reading my e-mail it is now, it is "the real thing"?

You might like to consider that there is just exactly one instance of now and it lasts forever.

Your model of different instances of now opens a can of worms about how long these different instances are, when they begin and end, if they overlap for different people in different places, who starts and ends them, etc. 

And, if you allow multiple instances of now, you also have to allow for accessing all of these nows at once - otherwise you have a whole bunch of homeless instances of now running around wagging their tails, hoping to become the chosen one.

In the "time" model, you view now as an infinitely tiny line that slides along the ribbon of time from past to future.  I wonder how you might go about doing anything productive in such a tiny instant as the now line.

In the "now" model, now is all there is, and it goes on forever.  You also carry memories (that you nickname the past) and intentions (that you nickname the future).

A trend is simply the difference between the price now and your memory of the price.  If it's higher now, the trend is up.

Believing in the time model leads to all kinds of internal fractionations, interferes with Fred (the feelings pump) and empowers drama.

Living within the "now model" tends to lead to CM-Fred integration and to right livelihood.

I do not know of any brokerage houses that accept orders in the past or in the future.  They only accept them right now - yes, even orders to buy "futures" later in the day, on the close.

If you still don't believe it, try to get your broker on the phone and give him an order in the past or future.

According to the Llama

whenever you look at your watch,

it's still, and always, now

Clip: http://www.mountlehmanllamas.com/

Mon, 6 Sep 2004

Re: FX and Help

Ed,


This is for the trader who wrote to you on August 21 asking for help about trading FX with a computer system. I trade FX using a computer system, and I’m willing to help.

-----

The best advice I have is to learn your programming, work hard, and back-test to get good parameters. That’s how I made my system. The alternative is to sit back comfortably in your office chair, wink at the screen, and wish really hard for it to come into existence and take care of itself.

After you have something developed, DO NOT TOUCH IT! If you get itchy and have the urge to fool with it, like having feelings of “I’ll just never know if it’s the RIGHT system that’s running…”, then go to a TTP meeting and experience it instead of changing the code. I will never … EVER … have the perfect system, so I stick to the one that I have. And, even if I explain the entire set of details about my system to you (which I’m also willing to do), it’s worthless to you. You have to trade a system that’s meaningful to you. Mine is only meaningful to me.

The tough part of my trading system is not the computer, the programming, the parameters, or the markets I choose – it’s the feelings that involuntarily arise after it’s all running with a live account. The first part is just plain old hard work where I can lay it out in a project and tick off the goals as I accomplish them. The last part is ongoing and never-ending, or at least until I hit the uncle point.

I guess this isn’t what you were looking for. But, it’s the best advice I can give in an email to a stranger through the oddest website that I have completely read.

Yes.

Mon, 6 Sep 2004

Bee Here Now.

Hi Ed and fellow FAQ fans.

Re: Beatings and More Buzzing Feeling

Sun, 25 Jul 2004

This post from a FAQ contributor, and the picture you post in response, seems to resonate with Fred or simply jogs my memory of a form I experience every so often. Before reading the post I describe the feeling as a swirling, wriggling sensation inside my cranium that is intensely dizzying and frightening. I only ever experience it in a half sleep/half waking semi-conscious state. The talk of ‘buzzing” by the contributor and how it jumps from legs to hands, head, neck, and back again, coupled with the picture of a man covered in bumble bees reminds me of this feeling. It is indeed a frightening buzzing sensation about my head that before now I have no explanation for.

I make a reference to it in this send: Dream Terror 2 Mon, 1 Dec, 2003:

“It frightens me to death. Two days running I was able to experience in a half sleep, half waking state such weird sensations of losing control, of something alien inside that writhes in terror when I focus my awareness on it. The writhing and terror is what I feel but it somehow seems to be me and not me at the same time.

It is very hard to describe. I’m getting closer but the fear of the unknown keeps me at bay.”

I also recall my brother mentioning way, way back of a time when I was little a boy. I disturbed a wasp’s nest near our house and subsequently got stung repeatedly. I have no recollection of this event but just remembering the story was enough for cm to take the ball and run. For the rest of the day at times I try to intentionally develop the form of ‘buzzing, swirling cranium’. I can remember how the sensation feels but I am unable to experience it. By the next day I forget about it.

During the afternoon of that same day I take my two dogs down to the walking trails near the lake for some exercise. Somewhere along the path I feel something crawling along my leg, so I take my baseball hat off and swat what I think is just a large deer fly just above the instep of my left foot. I proceed to put my hat back on when I feel the crawling sensation again and once more take my hat off to swat at it, this time looking to see what it is. Yes, a wasp somehow caught in the top of my sock and before I get the chance to give it another whack it stings me.

This is the first time I experience the sting of a bee or wasp in well over a decade and boy does it hurt. Immediately my mind goes back to what I had thought of the day before and although no recollection of past experiences come to surface I think of the buzzing feeling I tried to conjure up not 12 hours prior. Then in quick succession I get stung twice more, once on my left (ahem) love handle, and then on my right lower back … and yes it’s painful. No time to think as now I’m running and stripping my clothes off as I make a (Bee)-line for my vehicle, all the while dreading another sharp jolt from the nasty critters yet laughing at the absurd coincidence despite the pain. I reach my vehicle, relieved to find no one else around to see me in nothing more than my underwear. Before loading the dogs aboard I shake the bee-jiggers out of my clothes, lest there be any other dagger toting bugs lying in wait. Luckily…no more stings.

That night I call my brother who lives far away and tell him of my recent experience and ask him to tell me if he remembers much about my ordeal with being stung as a kid. He is surprised that I have no recollection of it whatsoever. He remembers being inside our house and looking outside our kitchen window and seeing me (he guesses 4 years old at the time) standing next to our wooden shed some 40 feet away from our house crying my eyes out, not moving except for the occasional swat with my hands about my ears, looking ever so terrified. He runs out and picks me up and takes me back inside to find that I’ve been stung repeatedly about my head after disturbing a wasp’s nest attached to our old shed. I’m wailing and petrified.

Maybe this is mere coincidence but the uncanniness of it and these remarks from you regarding some of my previous sends just makes me chuckle at the whole thing:

Ed says:
“Fred seems to want to communicate fear to CM. If you block this, Fred may set up situations for you in which you feel fear, such as nightmares, even fearful real-world situations.”

And

“Beginning to experience some deep feelings, and then not following through to resolution, may awaken and re-energize your drama.”


I figured I’d just pass this along…perhaps it will jog someone else’s memory or awaken another Fred as it did for me.

Learning to bee … here now.

OK.

Transformative Jewelry

For those who wish to

bee ear now

Clip: http://www.zolijewelry.com/bees.htm

Mon, 6 Sep 2004

Inner Urge


I say: I am hunted by strange fears of the non-existing future and I prefer not to ignore them and I sabotage a lot of enterprises right at point that success becomes a real possibility.

Ed Says: You can take your fears into TTP and convert them to allies before they convert you to an actor in their drama.

Yes, Chief. This is an old drama, and I live it right now. While listening to Native Americans' music I write you so as to clarify my intentions. I have an important exam on Sunday. I have prepared everything and even took a few days off work so as to finish studying the required papers. There is an important decision to be made. If I pass it, it can change my life a lot. A new job, moving to a different place ... everything can change. I feel I can do it.

Yet, at the same time, I do not feel like doing. I even have an inner urge to sabotage it deliberately. More right to point, my heart doesn't feel like making this decision. Somehow, and for motives I do not quite know or understand, I feel like betraying myself when I execute the plan.

As your feelings of fear become allies and populate your emotional control panel, they help guide you toward right livelihood.

You Can Feel Some Monsters

way before you see them.

Clip: http://www.misterrogers.org/

families/fears_main.asp

Mon, 6 Sep 2004

[My] Limits to Growth


1) Inability to fully and unconditionally experience all your feelings in the ever evolving moment of NOW, right NOW

2) Inability to clearly specify, in code, your own trading rules NOW

3) Inability to unconditionally and without judgment follow your system NOW

4) Inability to trade from a peaceful state NOW

5) Inability to manage risk NOW

6) Inability to ride winners NOW

7) Inability to cut losers NOW

8) Inability to fill whipsaws NOW

9) Inability to accept things as they are NOW

10) All of the above in the ever evolving moment of NOW

11) …

OK

Mon, 6 Sep 2004

Addiction

Hi Ed,

I have an addiction. It feels gratifying while I'm experiencing it yet I know it is destructive. I keep relapsing into it and when I do, I feel an uncomfortable guilt as hollowness in my chest area.  Afterwards, I tend to sigh a lot.

What is the best way to free myself from this addiction?

ad·dict verb, transitive

[Latin addicere, addict-, to sentence : ad- + dicere, to adjudge.]

1. To devote or give (oneself) habitually or compulsively: She was addicted to rock music.

2. To cause to become compulsively and physiologically dependent on a habit-forming substance: He was addicted to cocaine.

- The American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language, Third Edition Copyright © 1992 by Houghton Mifflin Company.

Trying to free yourself from addiction is the essence of addiction.

You might take your feelings of wanting to free yourself to your Tribe and into TTP.

You might celebrate these feelings, find their positive intentions and repatriate them as allies on your emotional control panel.

You might find you can reframe addiction positively, even apply yourself, addictively, to right livelihood.

If your addiction involves a mind altering substance, such as alcohol or drugs, you pretty much have to get sober first, in order to integrate TTP as one of your resources.

The Trick to Addiction

is to find a good Jones.

Clip: http://www.tmcm.com/

comics/045_addiction.gif

Sun, 5 Sep 2004

TTP - LA

Dear Mr. Seykota,

I want to join a Trading Tribe but there is no tribe in my area (Los Angeles) that will accept new members at this time. Do you have any suggestions how I can practive TTP?

Sincerely,

Find one nearby and/or start your own.

Sun, 5 Sep 2004

Much More to Trading than TTP

This week I am at Lake Tahoe in Ed's trading room with another Tribe member. The markets are slow. We fill an entire wall-sized whiteboard with data, comparing various data sources, and decoding the formulas popular software packages employ to calculate indicators used in trading systems. We compare these with Ed's bespoke proprietary software, and make some discoveries.

First, Ed articulates the different mindset for this part of the trading process. It is very different from the non-judgmental openness of TTP. In TTP, we attempt and succeed in releasing the judges' stranglehold over emotions. We let emotions come up, experience and celebrate them. Everything is all right. There are no wrong answers in the discovery of our true intentions. By contrast, in the precise mathematical work of system design and testing, there is black and white, right and wrong to the third decimal place. Precise thinking. Nothing touchy feely here.

Once six months or so of TTP produces a state of clarity and freedom, the serious work of system design makes sense. Before TTP, a trader is generally too emotional to follow a system anyway, so why bother? An ongoing commitment to TTP keeps the 'fog off the windshield'. So here we go. Ed begins with the foundations: checking the data for errors, and really knowing the formulas upon which a system builds. We comb through three sets of commercially available data on the same financial instrument, in this case the September bond contract. We nail down each and every discrepancy, and so discover which services use the pit opening, which used the electronic opening, which have missing data. We pick apart indicator formulas and discover different software uses slight variations. All these can give false signals, and inaccurate test results. Ed discusses his proprietary programs which sniff through data sets and find these anomalies.

He recalls past work discovering defective data and faulty software packages, and describes how programmers put in workarounds, or kluges*, to patch up slipshod work, until finally in some cases the band-aids weigh more than the patient and the whole program just topples over. He describes the many ways data vendors splice contracts together, including one method he invented called the Panama chart. He emphasizes the importance of designing and testing a system exactly the way one really trades, using real contract prices, and rolling to the next, or else they're just hypothetical made-up systems.

Who wants to do this much work to trade? Me, for one.

*kluge 1. A ramshackle, barely competent device, whether in hardware or software. 2. A clever programming trick intended to solve a particular nasty case in an expedient, if unclear, manner. Often used to repair bugs. 3. Something that works for the wrong reason. In 1947, the "New York Folklore Quarterly" reported a story Murgatroyd the Kluge Maker then current in the U.S. Armed Forces, in which a kluge was a complex and puzzling artifact with a trivial function. kluge was also Navy slang during World War II for any piece of electronics that worked well on shore but consistently failed at sea. The variant kludge was popularized by Jackson Granholme, [How to Design a Kludge, Datamation, February 1962, 30-31] who defined it as: "An ill-assorted collection of poorly matching parts, forming a distressing whole."

OK.

Sat, 4 Sep 2004

No Girls Allowed

I have been reading your website and find it absolutely fascinating. I am involved in trading and have many of the same concerns that other tribe members experience.

However, I note that all the entries seem to refer to "him, his, etc." Do women participate in tribes?

I am very interested in attending one of your workshops but I didn't know if women participate. I thank you for your time and look forward to hearing from you.

You might consider taking your feelings about not being able to join the boys, get through the glass ceiling, etc. into the process.

The No Girls Allowed Drama

To get in,

be willing

to experience their feelings,

and your own.

Clip: http://www.christmas-treasures.com/

department56/snow_village/

Collection/2004/55217.jpg

Fri, 3 Sep 2004

Automation Update


Hello Ed,

I had sent you an email couple of months back. Here is what I have done since my last posting:

- gone away from charting to price based trading

- coded my buy and sell signals - still need some work
here

- calculating volatility before buying any security.
This has been an eye opener.

- implemented a web server + DB interface so that I can monitor Drawdown and other stats in real-time for every account {not that I am watching all the time}

- Sticking to my system with no interference

- Takes less than 10 minutes at the end of day to move my stops

it took roughly a month to do this. I am up about 7% since last month.

Thanks for your insight and wisdom.

Yes.

Fri, 3 Sep 2004

Kettering

I just came across a quote by Charles Kettering (I am guess he was the
electrical engineer in the early 1900s):

"My interest is in the future ... because I am going to spend the rest of my life there."


Does that mean he never live, since the future is non-existent, and so he is spending the rest of his life in a place where it does not exist?

I do not know Kettering's meaning although I assume the statement comes more from a sales meeting than a physics lecture.

If Kettering is actually living in the future, you might like to keep your eyes peeled for him as he briefly appears as we pass him by.

Charles F. Kettering

(1876–1958)

"Research is a high hat word that scares a lot of people. It needn't. It is rather simple. Essentially, research is nothing but a state of mind -- a friendly, welcoming attitude toward change."

Among Kettering's inventions are the electric cash register and the self-starter for automobiles, eliminating, in both cases, the need for hand-cranking.

http://www.ascho.wpafb.af.mil/

START/PG4-C.HTM

Thu, 2 Sep 2004

JW Henry to their Brokers,

forwarded to FAQ.


9/1/2004 17:47

Drawdowns in performance are never easy to take. Each one has its own character and behavior, yet there are similarities in how positions are eliminated from the portfolio, leverage is changed and risk is adjusted.

Over the course of the JWH Global Trust's (JWH GT) current drawdown, our models have responded by changing positions as new trends are identified. We have closed many positions and do not have exposure in those markets that are truly trend-less.

While we can not predict when the drawdown will conclude, our 22 years of actual trading history, coupled with our extensive research of trends over longer periods, suggests that the current market environment will eventually cease and new trends will be established.

We have had significant experience with drawdowns and have historically shown the ability to return to new highs relatively quickly versus the time to reach the trough.

Many major markets in the first half of 2004 have been trend-less with increased volatility. This is a combination that is harmful for all trend-followers, but is especially difficult for managers like JWH that focus on longer-term trends which often have the best potential for profit.

JWH has been able to take advantage of those markets that have trended, but these opportunities have not been able to offset the unusual choppy behavior of some of our largest positions, which are in the most liquid markets. The following is a brief commentary to assist you and registered representatives in understanding how JWH GT has been affected by these markets year-to-date.

Where are we?

As of the end of June 2004, JWH GT is -5.16% (MTD) and -18.78% (YTD). The JWH GT drawdown we are facing at this time began in May 2003. As seen in the chart, historically even after a drawdown of 10% or more the returns 12-month later have been in double digits. Although this may not be the case in the future. The recovery period to new highs for each drawdown has been 6 months or less. While undesirable, this drawdown is not unprecedented and is within a probability tolerance.

JWH GT

Beginning Date - End Date - Drawdown % Subsequent 12-month Return Time to
Recover to New Highs:

December 1997 July 1998 -12.3% 20.6%

2 months

June 1999 September 2000 -28.8% 37.1%

6 months

March 2001 April 2002 -23.0% 55.8%

2 months

September 2002 November 2002 -12.9% 11.0%

2 months

May 2003 June 2004 ? -25.8% ? ?

How did it happen?

In the markets that are highly volatile without sustained trends, JWH will tend to under perform. Nevertheless, our analysis has shown that markets tend to generate significant trending behavior following this type of volatility, which JWH has historically captured in its performance.

With respect to the markets in 2004, high price range variability in the currency markets has continued to hurt JWH program performance; however, there have been strong positive gains generated in the energy sector and smaller profits in certain commodity and bond markets. The largest performance declines have come in the currency sector which has seen further erosion in returns from trading the yen complex.

What has changed?

As divergence traders, we are interested in what happens in the tails or at the extremes of the return distribution. This is where JWH programs historically have made money and this is where traditional managers face the greatest risk.

Most portfolio investment decisions are based on mean variance rules with a normal distribution, but in fact, most assets do not seem to have this characteristic over the long-run. Given our analysis of the current market environment, we have not made any changes to the models.

We are committed to the current allocation strategy of 40% Financial & Metals Portfolio, 30% JWH Global Analytic (R) Family of Programs, and 30% G-7 Currency Portfolio.

The overall exposure maintains the Trust's exposure to currencies. The significant allocation to F&M allows for continued exposure to the interest rate sector as well as to currencies with our three-phase models which will dynamically adjust to market volatility.

The continued exposure to JWH's unique five-phase program, JWH Global Analytics(R), will continue to provide exposure to intermediate and long-term price movements.

Conclusion

It remains important to realize that JWH GT is a component of one's long-term asset allocation strategy. While we can not know how long these market conditions will last, we know that in the past, by sticking to our convictions, not adjusting our models to short-term market changes, and by not cutting our program leverage, JWH has historically recovered strongly when trends emerge.

If you would master trend trading, you would do well to emulate the likes of JW Henry.

What's standing between JW Henry and following the system is, typically, nothing.

Magic Happens

at the zero point.

Clip: http://www.night.net/

tucker/magic.html-ssi

Wed, 01 Sep 2004

Trading and Spiritual Growth


Hi Chief,

This is what I usually feel after my meditation, Holotropic Breathwork and TTP:

You are not a human being having a spiritual experience. You are a spiritual being having a human experience.

-- Dr. Wayne Dyer

You might consider that Spirituality and Humanity may co-exist in the moment of now.

Everything = Nothing

in the Now

Clip: http://www.lulevitch.com/ART/

spirituality%20hand.html 

Wed, 01 Sep 2004

Dear Mr Seykota,

Knowing others is strength;

Knowing thyself is true power.

Mastering others is intelligence.

Mastering yourself is true wisdom.

-- Sun Tsu

Ed’s Peking Tribe 2400 BC???

I have a question referring to FAQ of 1 June 2003 (bottom of the page).

Ed says:

A sampling interval of 30 minutes (30 minute price bars) is way too large to compute a 30 minute exponential average with any accuracy.

So you use formula A_t = A_t-1 + dt/T (P_t - A_t-1) to achieve more accuracy.

I see in the numeric example that you gave that you use a sampling interval of 5 minutes to achieve some accuracy.

My 2 questions are:

You sample the data every 5 minutes and use a 25 minutes constant.

1) Is your choice of 5 minutes just arbitrary?

2) To achieve more accuracy on weekly time constant is the sampling interval in that case (still 5 minutes or 1/5 of the week (1 day)?

The exponential smoothing formula (in C++):

A += dt/T (P - A);

This form is fairly accurate

for dt < T/3

and likely accurate enough

for dt < T/10.

For more accuracy, you can set

dt << T. 

For very very small dt, however, your program may run very very slowly.

If you want accuracy and speed, you might also consider implementing the Runga-Kuta enhancement for Euler's method.

You can get a feel for dt sensitivity in Euler-ian models by simulating an oscillator on a spreadsheet, per:

A -= dt/T * B;

B += dt/T * A;

For dt --> 0, the system generates a pretty good sinusoid.  As dt gets larger, the system exhibits negative damping.