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Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Fri, 30 Sep 2005

Profitable

Fri, 30 Sep 2005

You might note you are using price as a reason even though no price appears in the notice.  Relying on having no money can be an expensive dependency.

Fri, 30 Sep 2005

The Incline Village Trading Tribe and the Breathwork Weekends are high-intensity engagements for people who commit deeply to practicing and developing the work.

Many self-development disciplines use forms of intentional breathing. You can find about a quarter of a million references to Breathwork on Google.

In TTP, Breathwork refers to a three-day process including substantial preparation, perspiration and  postperation plus about about 2-3 hours of intentional breathing.

There are more ways to breathe.

then there are breathers

Clip: http://www.wau.nl/isow/Activities/yoga.htm

Fri, 30 Sep 2005

Responsibility Model


Chief Ed,

In the Wed 21 2005 post (see
http://www.seykota.com/tribe/FAQ/

2005_Sep/Sep_15/index.htm  ) ,

You are comparing a basic tenet of TTP with a cliché and+, finding some differences. 

Your cliché uses responsibility in the sense of assigning accountability, as in: you are responsible for bringing the cookies to the meeting.  In this sense, the parties make an agreement about who is bringing the cookies.  Your cliché alludes to some management problems that associate with ambiguous assignment of responsibility.

The legal system uses responsibility in the sense of (non-existing) causality, as in: you are responsible for the "accident."  This sense supports the notions of guilt and blame and is useful in our legal system for extracting reparations (occasionally from the bad guy, or the rich guy).

In TTP, responsibility is a notion that links intention to result, as in: I intend to post this answer to the FAQ website, I take responsibility for posting it, and the result is this post.

If I declare an intention and do not manifest the result, then I know I am not taking responsibility.

When the members of a Tribe all subscribe to the same snapshot, and take responsibility for it manifesting, all manner of unforeseeable support arrives to promote the initiative and the result manifests like magic.

A corollary is that we are all responsible for things being exactly the way they are.

If even a few percent of the population were to intend to fortify the Louisiana levees, or to balance the federal budget or to increase the efficiency of the school system, and it these people were to all declare personal responsibility to manifest the intention, you could witness some real magic.

It appears the real intention of most people is to ride along with the way it is.  Meanwhile, the clear and strong intention of a few persons who profit by expanding the current systems is suffiecient to ensure continuing growth and degradation of these systems.

Even in Games of Chance

Intention = Result

Fri, 30 Sep 2005

Snapshot


Dear Ed,

Can you please describe what a "snapshot" is in more detail, or provide a reference to it.

A snapshot, per TTP has several properties:

Fri, 30 Sep 2005

Thu, 29 Sep 2005

Cookies, Ad-ware, Pizza, Privacy

http://www.adcritic.com/interactive/

Thu, 29 Sep 2005

Will Not Attend

Thu, 29 Sep 2005

Limit Up / Down

Good catch.

At this point in TSP, I have no provision for inhibiting trading basis lock-limit. 

Methods for flagging the lock-limit condition include:

Thu, 29 Sep 2005

Japan, Australia and the Far East


Dear Ed,

I hope that the fellow-hood of Donchian and Seykota have not missed out on Japan, Australia and the Far East just recently. Here's three charts.

best wishes all,

Japan Nikkei 225 Index

 Singapore Straits Times Index

 Australian All Ordinaries Index

Wed, 28 Sep 2005

$300,000,000 Looking for Managers

FYI


San Bernardino Plans Portable Alpha Strategy
 

Wed, 28 Sep 2005

Yes.

Paramahamsa Hariharananda, Paramahamsa Prajnanananda and I all have beards, although mine is mostly an artifact of irregular shaving.

Baba P. H.

Baba P. P.

On their website,

the PH jpg is one pixel wider

Wed, 28 Sep 2005

Just Until October

Tue, 27 Sep 2005

The crossover point is the point at which the tension in a form resolves. 

One technique we sometimes employ is now- surfing - that is, staying just on the point of release as long as possible, in order to fully experience it.

Surfing the Now

and being at one with the experience

Tue, 27 Sep 2005

Hot Seat Experience

Ed,

Hot seat feedback:

I arrive at Ed's house knowing that I am going to take the hot seat about being anxious and impatient. I have not been paid an incentive fee in nine months and my management fees do not cover all my company expenses, yet.

At the end of August I up a little over 10% before fees for the year. My incentive fees are paid out quarterly so all I have to do is make it until the end of September to get paid.

I trade a long-term trend following system that is heavily investing in energy at the moment. The whole month of September I watch it decline and erode away all of my gains for the year.

I stick to my system and watch it drawdown -10% in September mainly due to the energy decline. I notice that I am anxious about holding my energy positions all the way back down and watching all of my profits disappear. I am also feeling impatient about not getting paid and having my company generate it's own operating cash flow.

I take the hot seat and get right into my forms. I notice that I am clenching my jaw shut and squinting my eyes as I hold my breath. Ed says notice how it feels to hold those energy positions all the way back down and feel the squeeze from the short sellers.

Now this time really feel the squeeze. I cannot stand the feeling. I do not like giving back big profits especially right at the end of the quarter.

Next, I get into the form of writing checks to my company from my personal account and having to pay lawyers, credit cards, data vendors, the cable bill, the phone bill, and a few others.

I experience the feeling of spending, spending, spending, and more spending all coming from my personal account to fund everything. Oh, here come a few more bills, time to write some more checks and spend some more money. Again the feelings are anxiety and impatience.

I keep at it and keep experiencing the feelings and the forms. I notice after a while that I am starting to enjoy the forms and that everything is okay. It is okay to feel what I am feeling. Ed says hold on to those energy positions really tight now and watch your energy positions go straight up and squeeze the
shorts.

Tue, 27 Sep 2005

If you inject a bit of Governmentium into an economic system, the Governmentium increases in mass while the system inflates.  Eventually the system hyper-inflates and the Governmentium implodes.

Implosion

a curious event

in which an object consumes itself.

Clip: http://www.reviewjournal.com/

Tue, 27 Sep 2005

New Tribe

It is getting more and more difficult to travel to my tribe as I have to leave lunch time on the tribe day and return lunch time the next day. So every week the desire for a closer tribe gets stronger. I always felt that I first need to do the workshop to do it right.

Welcome

Pfaeffikon

Switzerland

Mon, 26 Sep 2005

Low Priced Stocks

Velocity is independent of position; trend is independent of price.

velocity is the first derivative of position

Mon, 26 Sep 2005

Tribe Report and Question about the Snapshot

Dear Ed -

I continue to clarify and hardball my original snapshot. So far we have done two sessions of about an hour each. I also spend many (non tribe) hours thinking about, writing and editing this snapshot.


The first time I "hotseated" the snapshot, I bring up a large stack of unhappy judges. It is the most unpleasant, difficult and long hot seat I have ever had in the tribe. I experience a lot of unpleasant feelings in the chest and stomach and every body movement or form that comes up as a judge is NOT fun.

Part of the snapshot process is to communicate it to others.  You might consider taking your feelings about simplifying things (making them easy to see) to your Tribe as an entry point.

Complex

is sometimes just an attempt

to hide

Clip: www.koolpages.com/ tiedyeman/new.html

Mon, 26 Sep 2005

Mandelbrot

Hello Ed,

I read your reply to my email in the FAQ (2 Sept.), sorry for delay I have a lot of work on this time. I have a Mandelbrot indicator based in the explanation in attachment.

The indicator was testing in trading solutions back testing (we avoid over fitting) and survives. We re-testing in a lot of markets and continue working. We re-testing in a random data and still working. But, this indicator alone doesn't generate a buy or sell signal, because it is only a second filter. It only tell us when the trend a bend.

The indicator is a 3D model (3 lines in 3 different time) with a attractor (like Lorenz bell attractor). . This happen when the tree lines are very close to zero.

We trade in the long term using Point & Figure chart. We love to buy when the price test the BSL (Bullish Support Line) because usually offer a good risk/reward for the long term, like Crude. For the medium term we use the Bullish Catapult, Triangle and broken quintuple tops or, in special, a broken Bearish Line Trend. We only trading with 4 or 5 attributes positives, like positive Trend, Relative Strength, Momentum and above moving averages.

But our state of art is our model of risk and money management (see attachment).

RISK MANAGEMENT: We avoid a lot of diversification. Our investment approach focuses on a very limited number of core investments themes that are not highly correlated. In this time we are trading STOCKS (USA and EUROPE), CRUDE and FOREX (EUR/USD and EUR/JYP).

TRADING TRIGGER: Macro economic view (5% - we use in our confidence level); Market psychology (contrarian thinking - we use this in our confidence level - see the attachment); technical analysis (we analyse the sector and after the best stocks or commodities).

MONEY MANAGEMENT: We use stops and trailing stops. We ask all time for a minimum 1:2 Risk/Reward. We choice the stop looking to chart and not looking for money or % of loosing. We limit our loss a percentage of loss, but we don't trying fit the % of loss in the stop or vice versa, we allocate more or less capital to the same percentage of loss. If I estipulate 10% of loss to a trade of 10.000USD , and the stock is 100 USD and STOP LOSS 80 USD. I
will allocate only 5.000 USD and take the stop in 80USD but only asking for a 1:2 risk/reward. We use a percentage bet fix but only look to the
risk/reward.

I see, while you do not have a simulation study, or even a way to generate buy and sell signals, you do have lots of buzz words.

Some Systems are Like Bumblebees

Plenty of Buzz

and then,

 the sting.

Mon, 26 Sep 2005

Hello again Chief,

Welcome

Atlanta

Georgia

Sun, 25 Sep 2005

You are welcome.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Child of Wonder

Fri, 23 Sep 2005

Response to Daily Report (below)

What [Name] just went through, were the issues I had brought to the breath workshop. These issues for me are – feeling angry about a missed trading opportunity – which my system wants me to execute. But as the signal comes, I hesitate because I am fearful because I think I may lose money or I am greedy thinking that I may get a better entry point. Then I miss the trade and see it work profitably had I taken the signal and this makes me angry at myself and then I feel sad and question about me being in "trading business".

But a few weeks after the workshop – I get "insights" – an "aha" or "eureka" moments for me. I say to myself I must make an "ally" of the feelings of anxiety and fear that come over me as I get the trading signal from my system. When I feel these feelings, then I know that I am right (or the system is right). If I don't feel these feelings – this happens when I put a trade on based on just impulse or other people's opinion, or enter too late - then I have found from my trading "mistakes" that I am invariably wrong. So I must take the signal as soon as it arrives and when I am feeling the anxiety and fear. They are thus my allies now!

Then after having pulled the trigger I see that the trade is "just sitting there" or may go slightly against me at first but not quite to my stop level. Then when finally it begins to work and comes to (or close to) my entry cost after being in a loss, I say let's get out so I don't lose anymore money (greed and fear) and thus I don't have to feel this "butterflies in the stomach" – feeling of anxiety and fear. Then I cut it to avoid these feelings. Then after I get out, I see that the trade is going gangbuster in my system's direction – i.e. profitable. Then I say to myself - had I just stayed in (regret), why did I get out (regret and sadness), am I not cut out to be in this business (dejected) etc. But lately, I stick it out.

Then I find myself getting out at a small profit and then I see the trade – had I stayed in – show bigger and bigger profits! I feel even more sad, regretful and completely dejected.

But recently, I have carried out a couple of signals from entry to exit using trailing stops to the fullest of the trend. And boy, do I feel elated when that happens. So just like the feeling of elation is my ally (because I enjoy it) I must make allies with anxiety, fear (pre trade feelings) and then fear again (during the trade – what if it reverses and I lose or give up part of the gains etc).

I need to tell myself "stay calm, balanced and focused at the task at hand" – stay in the moment of now- and let each subsequent moment of now unfold and then either let the stop take me out (and even if I lose money when stopped out, I feel okay – calm – because I know did my best by doing the right thing.

Or if I do carry the trade to the end of the trend and get stopped out on reversal of trend with maximum profits captured – then I am elated because I did the right thing and am showing profit. So profit and loss are just byproducts of doing the right thing in first place by staying in the moment and not getting stressed out and doing the wrong thing by swaying between the past (thinking I lost money last time) and the future (what if I lose money on this trade).

Sticking to the system is "staying in the moment of now".

By not wanting to feel fear and anxiety, was my way of avoiding doing the right thing or the hard thing. This also spills into my business and personal life.

At work, one of my employees was being a malcontent, disgruntled and getting angry at me for no good reason and swearing at me in moments of stress, confronting me on many business and personnel decisions, coming in late, leaving early, taking "too many doctor's appointments" and sick days – and the list goes on and on.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Learning to Enjoy the Form

of Firing

Clip: http://www.detnews.com/pix/

Fri, 23 Sep 2005

London Workshop

Ed,

Any developments with the London workshop or have you been put off by the terrorist activity ?

If so, may I propose Amsterdam as an alternative European venue, convenient & a very short flight for Londoners.

Thu, 22 Sep 2005

MSG by Any Other Name

Hi Ed ! i know you have an interest in MSG, so passing this along.


FOOD ADDITIVE "MSG" IS A SLOW POISON.

Slow Poisoning MSG hides behind 25 or more names, such as

"Natural Flavoring". MSG is also in your favorite Tim Horton's and other brand coffee shops! Pass this on to those who still may be unaware or disbelieving of the dangers of MSG.

I wondered if there could be an actual chemical causingthe massive obesity epidemic, so did a friend of mine, John Erb. He was a  research assistant at the University of Waterloo in Ontario, Canada, and
spent years working for the government.

He made an amazing discovery while going through
scientific journals for a book he was writing called "The Slow Poisoning of America".

In hundreds of studies around the world, scientists were creating obese mice and rats to use in diet or diabetes test studies. No strain of rat or mice is naturally obese, so the scientists have to create them. They make these morbidly obese creatures by injecting them with MSG when they are first born. The MSG triples the amount of insulin the pancreas creates; causing rats (and humans?) to become obese. They even have a title for the
fat rodents they create: "MSG-Treated Rats".

I was shocked too. I went to my kitchen, checking the cupboards and the fridge. MSG was in everything! The Campbell's soups, the Hostess Doritos, the Lays flavored potato chips, Top Ramen, Betty Crocker
Hamburger Helper, Heinz canned gravy, Swanson frozen prepared meals, Kraft salad dressings, especially the 'healthy low fat' ones. The items that
didn't have MSG marked on the product label had something called ''Hydrolyzed Vegetable Protein'', which is just another name for Monosodium
Glutamate. It was shocking to see just how many of the foods we feed our children everyday are filled with this stuff. They hide MSG under many
different names in order to fool those who carefully read the ingredient list, so they don't catch on.

Other names for MSG:

Accent, Aginomoto - Natural Meet Tenderizer, etc.

But it didn't stop there. When our family went out to eat, we started asking at the restaurants what menu items had MSG. Many employees, even the managers, swore they didn't use MSG. But when we ask for the ingredient list, which they grudgingly provided, sure enough MSG and Hydrolyzed Vegetable Protein were everywhere. Burger King, McDonalds, Wendy's, Taco Bell, every restaurant, even the sit down ones like TGIF, Chilis', Applebee's and Denny's use MSG in abundance. Kentucky Fried Chicken seemed to be the WORST
offender: MSG was in every chicken dish, salad dressing and gravy. No wonder I loved to eat that coating on the skin, their secret spice was MSG!

So why is MSG in so may of the foods we eat?.. Is it a preservative or a vitamin?? Not according to my friend John. In the book he wrote, an expose of the food additive industry called "The Slow Poisoning
of America" he said that MSG is added to food for the addictive effect it has on the human body.

http://www.spofamerica.com

Even the propaganda website sponsored by the food
manufacturers lobby group supporting MSG at:

http://www.msgfactscom/facts/msgfact12.html

explains that the reason they add it to food is to make people eat more. A study of the elderly showed that people eat more of the foods that it is added to.

The Glutamate Association lobby group says eating more benefits the elderly, but what does it do to the rest of us? 'Bet you can't eat just one', takes on a whole new meaning where MSG is concerned! And
we wonder why the nation is overweight? The MSG manufacturers themselves admit that it addicts people to their products. It makes people choose their product over others, and makes people eat more of it than they would if MSG wasn't added.

Not only is MSG scientifically proven to cause obesity,
it is an addictive substance! Since its introduction into the American food supply fifty years ago, MSG has been added in larger and larger doses to the pre-packaged meals, soups, snacks and fast foods we are tempted to eat everyday. The FDA has set no limits on how much of it can be added to
food.

They claim it's safe to eat in any amount. How can they claim it safe when there are hundreds of scientific studies with titles like these?

' The monosodium glutamate (MSG) obese rat as a model for the study of exercise in obesity'. Gomatos, Mello MA, Souza CT, Ribeiro
IA.Res Commun Mol Pathol Pharmacol. 2002.

' Adrenalectomy abolishes the food-induced hypothalamic serotonin release in both normal and monosodium glutamate-obese rats'.
Guimaraes RB, Telles MM, Coelho VB, Mori C, Nascimento CM, Ribeiro Brain Res Bull. 2002 Aug.

'Obesity induced by neonatal monosodium glutamate
treatment in spontaneously hypertensive rats: an animal model of multiple risk factors'. Iwase M, Yamamoto M, Iino K, IchikawaK, Shinohara N, Yoshinari

Fujishima Hypertens Res. 1998 Mar.

'Hypothalamic lesion induced by injection of monosodium glutamate in suckling period and subsequent development of obesity'. Tanaka
K, Shimada M, Nakao K, Kusunoki Exp Neurol. 1978 Oct.

Yes, that last study was not a typo, it WAS written in
1978. Both the "medical research community" and "food manufacturers" have known about MSG's side effects for decades! Many more studies mentioned in
John Erb's book link MSG to Diabetes, Migraines and headaches, Autism, ADHD and even Alzheimer's. But what can we do to stop the food manufactures from
dumping fattening and addictive MSG into our food supply and causing the obesity epidemic we now see?

Even as you read this, G. W. Bush and his corporate
supporters are pushing a Bill through Congress called the "Personal Responsibility in Food Consumption Act" also known as the "Cheeseburger Bill", this sweeping law bans anyone from suing food manufacturers, sellers and distributors. Even if it comes out that they purposely added an
addictive chemical to their foods. Read about it for yourself at:http://www.yahoo.com/. The Bill has already been rushed through the House of Representatives, and is due for the same rubber stamp at Senate level. It is important that Bush and his corporate supporters get it through before the media lets everyone know about 'MSG, the intentional Nicotine for food'.

Several months ago, John Erb took his book and his
concerns to one of the highest government health officials in Canada. While sitting in the Government office, the official told him "Sure I know how bad MSG is, I wouldn't touch the stuff!" But this top level government official refused to tell the public what he knew.

The big media doesn't want to tell the public either,
fearing legal issues with their advertisers. It seems that the fallout on fast food industry may hurt their profit margin. The food producers and restaurants have been addicting us to their products for years, and now we are paying the price for it. Our children should not be cursed with obesity caused by an addictive food additive. But what can I do about it?... I'm just one voice!

What can I do to stop the poisoning of our children,
while our governments are insuring financial protection for the industry that is poisoning us!

This e-mail is going out to everyone I know in an attempt to tell you the truth that the corporate owned politicians and media won't tell you. The best way you can help to save yourself and your children
from this drug-induced epidemic, is to forward this email to everyone. With any luck, it will circle the globe before politicians can pass the
legislation protecting those who are poisoning us. The food industry learned a lot from
the tobacco industry. Imagine if big tobacco had a bill like this in place before someone blew the whistle on Nicotine?

If you are one of the few who can still believe that MSG is good for us, and you don't believe what John Erb has to say, see for yourself. Go to the National Library of Medicine, at

http://www.pubmed.com/.

Type in the words "MSG Obese" and read a few of
the 115 medical studies that appear.

We the public, do not want to be rats in one giant
experiment and we do not approve of food that makes us into a nation of obese, lethargic, addicted sheep, feeding the food industry's bottom line,
while waiting for the heart transplant, diabetic induced amputation, blindness or other obesity induced, life threatening disorders. With your
help we can put an end to this poison. Do your part in sending this message out by word of mouth, e-mail or by distribution of this print-out to all
your friends all over the world and stop this 'Slow Poisoning of Mankind' by the packaged food industry.

Legislation does not change human behavior.  If people want MSG or cocaine or heroin or mustard or ketchup, they find a way to get it.

I suspect you might get more mileage by having people tell their feelings about using MSG - than by laying down lots of scientific evidence.

I am not clear about your feelings - what motivates you to engage this campaign.  Perhaps your Tribe can help you sort out your feelings and focus your energy into a clear snapshot of some results you can intend.

When One Man's Poison

is another man's profit,

logic has little effect.

Sharing feelings

Thu, 22 Sep 2005

Thu, 22 Sep 2005

Daily Report to Support Team

Good morning!

Here I am 7:30 in my office on time.

No drinking yesterday!

Trades: I should be short ER2-E-Mini at 663,20 but I am not. I get the Signal on Tuesday, but I did not take it, I was sure that the market does not move much lover. When the market moves lower on Tuesday evening I get very angry that I did not take my signal. So I did not come in my office yesterday (Wednesday), I stop trading, until I am clear about couple of questions:

Do I really want to trade?

Why work so hard to build a mechanical trading systen and then not trade it?

Is this the right business for me etc.?

Thank you for keeping your commitment to send a daily report.

You might consider taking your feelings of anger to your local Tribe. If you have your anger in a k-not, you might have a tendency to set up associating drama in the market.

Wed, 21 Sep 2005

Testimonial

Ed,

The attachment contains a draft of my testimonial
about your work. I have done many revisions and can no longer see any mistakes. Can you read it over briefly and provide feedback on any minor grammatical errors or on anything that needs clarity. I am not looking for a major overhaul, just a minor touch up if need be.

-----

My experience with TTP is something almost beyond conscious comprehension. It enhances every aspect of my life on a daily basis. I cannot thank Ed enough for this wonderful gift that he is sharing with the world.

With each passing day I continue to learn more and more about myself and others. I continue to evolve as an emotional being having a human experience rather than a human being have an emotional experience.

I now listen to my feelings and my body and use them as guides to help me make decisions in all aspects of my life including trading. My previous path involves ignoring and avoiding feelings and using my conscious mind and societal logic to make all of my decisions. 

Now I know that I can have anything that I really want. I sincerely do, and I have come to know it as “Magic.” The main key to achieving anything is my “WILLINGNESS” to experience all of my feelings.

I notice only then is it possible for me to experience this “Magic.” People seem to show up to miraculously help me when I need it. I get phone calls or emails right on cue to tell me exactly what I need to hear, and events just seem to conspire to work out exactly as I need them to without explanation.

In the span of less than a year my life transitions from being unclear, uncertain, and full of endless conflict to a life of clarity, certainty, purpose, and most of all harmony. All of my relationships are different today. The ones that still exist from my past are much stronger and harmonious and the others just seem to fade somewhere off into the sunset.

Today all of my relationship interactions are win-win, upfront, straight forward, and have a feelings orientation. My past interactions demonstrate hidden agendas, manipulation, recurring drama, and avoidance of feelings. I no longer experience these interactions nor do I crave or attract them as I once did. 

I encounter major life altering transitions in both my business and personal life. I separate from my girlfriend of four years and experience several feelings that I do not like. I learn that my “Fred” really wants me to feel certain feelings. He sets up a major drama to help me feel the very feelings that I spent the last four years of my life trying to consciously avoid.

My business grows from a two person operation to a seven person cohesive unit that is one of the top trend following investment managers in the world today. My top performing investment product produces a 38.09% gain in the last twelve month net of fees, a 2% management fee and 20% incentive fee.

My journey begins in October 2004 where a fellow tribesman and myself are in Chicago attending a Futures Industry Association conference. I tell him about a feeling that I am experiencing and he says with emphasis and authority, “THERE, that means something!

There is something important about that feeling that you need to experience.” He proceeds to suggest that at a minimum I think about attending Ed’s upcoming TTP workshop and then decide or not to join a tribe. I recall he mentions “Ed is a fricking genius!” 

I return home that day and proceed directly to www.tradingtribe.com and find out what I need to do in order to attend the workshop. I call Ed and reserve a spot. The workshop is an eye opener in terms of how much conscious mind I really am. I learn that it is ok to feel what I am feeling, in whatever moment of now that is. I learn that I live most of my life in the past and the future and have no idea what “living in the now” is all about.

I learn that feelings have positive intentions and that they are important guides as to what is really running my life. I learn that the feelings I am unwilling to experience are controlling my life. 

At the workshop I recall working on identifying where certain feelings in my body reside and what the forms of these feelings are. I remember feeling a bit awkward about what I am doing and what I am feeling. These are just not normal interactions with people yet everyone in the room seems to be ok with everything. I proceed with the exercises and eventually take my first “hot seat.”

I recall feeling embarrassment and asking myself what the heck am I doing? I find myself standing up shaking my head from side to side and moving my fingers like I am playing an imaginary piano. Then I start jumping like a frog as high as I can. All the while well several others encourage me to do it more.

I do not recall feeling anything other than “what is this and why am I doing this?” After around twenty or thirty minutes of doing these what I think are ridiculous gestures, forms, I get to the “zero point.”

I have no idea what my hot experience is all about. People are telling me good job and that I really went for it. The only thing that I know is that it feels good to do some of these forms and that people are accepting me.

Today, I now know that the feelings that I deal with are embarrassment and acceptance.  

After the workshop culminates I apply for membership in the Incline Village Tribe. Ed accepts me as a new member. I recall my first meeting asking if there is a confidentiality agreement, and if not that one should be put in place. Ed responds that there is not and that I might take my wanting one to the hot seat. He also tells me not to say anything that I do not want anyone to know.

I take the hot seat and notice that I am dealing with embarrassment again. I am having feelings of embarrassment about showing my real feelings and putting my real issues on the table. I take these feelings to task and allow myself to feel them and they quickly fade away.

Over the next several meetings I begin dealing with real issues. Several of which I am not even consciously aware of as I take the hot seat the next 15 meetings in a row. Every week I seem to have a new issue or work on, or I work on a previous issue that does not have complete resolution.  

I notice and recall several times just feeling something in my body in certain places and having no idea what the feeling is when I arrive at the tribe meeting. Regardless of wherever I start my hot seat experience I always seem to end up with stomach pain.

I recall thinking this is really strange that no matter what I am conscious of everything leads back to my stomach and I do not like that feeling.  

I notice that all of the issues that I am working on have to do with my personal life. They seem to be all coming back to my relationships with people specifically my girlfriend at the time. 

After several months of TTP I find all of my relationships improving except for my relationship with my girlfriend. She says she is supportive of my participation in the tribe but has no interest discussing it.

Over time I tell her bits and pieces and she gets the general idea. She does not like me telling her my feelings and is unwilling to share her feelings with me. She claims that I am suffocating her with my feelings and she cannot stand it. 

I talk to her about moving out and taking a break. We eventually break-up in extreme dramatic fashion. I notice one day that she is talking on instant messenger to someone. She tells me it is someone she met at the dog park and he is helping her find a place to live.

I notice that she brings his name up a few more times in the next few days and that she is spending time talking to him on instant messenger.

I decide to archive her instant messages to check out what is really going on. I get up the next morning and read the instant messages and I see several things that I do not like specifically that they are making plans to date when she moves out.

She also mentions that she wishes that he would have kissed her at the dog park a few days ago. I feel hurt and betrayal and decide to break up with her right then and there at 5:30 am. I wake her up and tell her to pack her sh-- and get the F--- out. She says where am supposed to go? I say I don’t care just get the F--- out now! 

I recall feelings of betrayal, sadness, anger, and pain in my stomach. At around 7:00 am I check my email and I find this message in my inbox from a friend that knows nothing about TTP:

            Today's thought is:

The only way out is through.

The only way to heal the pain is to embrace the pain. -- Fritz Perls

You are like a diamond that is continually being polished and perfected. As this purification proceeds, old thought forms and negative patterns rise to the surface to be released.

Past-unfinished business must be completed. Old traumas that have been stored in the body ask to be discharged.

This is not a bad thing -- far from it. The fact that painful events are being re-experienced is a sign that healing is taking place. Although you may feel tempted to run from these feelings, let yourself experience them. As you allow yourself to feel the pain, the pain diminishes and eventually disappears.

Spirit is always helping you to release that which you no longer need. Let go of the resistance and surrender to the process. Complete the past and move on. Once you have done the work, you will never have to repeat it.

How good it feels to be free!

I remember breaking down into tears thinking that this is exactly what I need at this exact moment. It describes the TTP process perfectly and it nails exactly what I am experiencing right now. The most amazing part of the whole thing is that I did not speak to anyone before checking my email that morning.

It is not possible for anyone to have conscious knowledge of what I was going through at that exact moment. Yet, somehow that message shows up right on cue, right when I need it most, truly “magic.”

Another intriguing thing is that this all happens on a Thursday which is the day we hold tribe meetings. I am able to take my feelings to the tribe and take the hot seat that day, right when I need it the most, again "magic". I recall sitting on the floor stretching forward and yelling “what the F---" while thrusting my hands straight out in front of me.

I recall the tribe asking what the feeling is and all I can think of is that the feeling is "what the F---." I remember feeling a combination of being upset, angry, and betrayal all at the same time.

The next form I experience after exhausting my "what the F---" form is to sit with my arms wrapping around my knees with my head between my knees rocking back and forth slightly, crying my eyes out. My face completely hidden and I am basically curling up in a ball position.

I recall the tribe and specifically Ed telling me to “let it come up, let it all out.” I engage so deeply in the feelings of betrayal that I am not conscious of how much I am crying. I reach up to wipe the tears from my eyes and thinking wow I am really letting it out. My hands are completely soaking wet with tears and because I am embracing the feeling so deeply I hardly feel the tears. I cry until it feels ok to feel what I am feeling.

At the end of the process a few of the tribe members give me a hug. I recall feeling so thankful that I have such a supportive group that accepts me unconditionally, and that I have an outlet to express my true feelings.

This is the beginning of the most major transition in my life to this point. The drama does not end with my ex-girlfriend. It plays out several different ways over the next two months and I keep taking the hot seat and working on the feelings that I do not like. I begin to have daily “aha’s” and my life starts to take a new direction. I begin to realize how I function, how other people function, and become aware of how many knots I have. It is truly enlightening and freeing once I am able to embrace my feelings and untie the knots.

I notice for a month or two I wake up almost every other night and write five to ten pages about my “aha’s”. Ed is writing his book at the time and I am proof reading it. I recall falling asleep several nights in a row with it in my hands and waking up with major “aha’s”.

The most major “aha’s” that I experience is that manipulation is a big part of all of my relationships, specifically with my ex-girlfriend.

I recall role playing a situation with Ed where he plays me and I play my ex. The situation has to do with the fact that I cannot stand when she gets mad at me. The manipulative exchange goes something like this:

My Ex (ME): (my ex screaming at me) I want the dogs they are mine and I am so mad at you for not letting me see them. You have no right not to let me see them.

Me (ED) Thank you! Thank you for sharing your feelings with me and letting me know that you are really angry. For the last four years I have been so controlling that I did not allow you to feel that feeling. I am alright with it now and I am willing to let you feel that now. 

As soon as the exchange concludes I have the major “aha” that it has been a dual manipulation for years. Her yelling at me to get her way, thus manipulating my behavior, and me not allowing her to feel angry by giving her way every time, thus manipulating her behavior.

Another situation arises in which she tells me she wants to be a “go-go” dancer at one of the clubs in South Lake Tahoe for the summer. I immediately go into a jealous rage and I have no idea where the feeling is coming from because I do not recall feeling this feeling before.

I also do not think I am a jealous person. I take the feeling to the hot seat and get a major “aha” that this is one of the feelings controlling my life because I hate it and I have not felt it since high school. I recall dating a girl in high school that is unfaithful and that makes me feel jealous.

Ever since that high school experience I have a knot that does not allow me to feel that feeling. I feel several other feelings that come up first to protect me from feeling jealous. This goes on for 12 years that I do not feel jealous until now. Wow, this feeling that I have been unwilling to feel has been hold up inside me trying to get out for a long time.

No wonder it is so difficult to experience and I hate every second of it. No wonder Fred has to create such a large drama to help me get to it because it is sunk in there so deep.

I spend several sleepless nights thinking about her making love to someone else and this make me feel extremely jealous.  I recall going 60 hours without sleeping because of this feeling. The non-stop worrying and the roller-coaster of rage that comes and goes just rip’s apart my stomach.

The fact that I have no idea what she is doing is driving me crazy. This is another feeling that I do not like, in fact I hate it. I hate the not knowing and not being in control. Again this feeling is all in my stomach.

I take all of these feelings to the tribe and take the hot seat and this time I have a major breakthrough. I take my feelings of not knowing, jealousy, and not being in control to task. They are all leading to pain in my stomach and I am able to throw up in a bucket while I am on the hot seat as the tribe provokes me.

The provoking is something I really do not like but really helps me to fully experience the feelings and without any force. I throw up by just fully embracing my feelings. It hurts like hell and when it’s all over I feel complete and total exhaustion.

I feel better about not knowing and I am ok with whatever she wants to do. I am also ok with not being in control.

After taking several hot seats as the sender and receiving many other senders on the hot seat I start becoming clearer. I cannot underestimate the power of receiving as a large influence on my overall growth. Specifically, one hot seat in particular stands out where the sender is working on an issue that revolves around his significant other wanting to marry. He states that if he can only get her feeling of what that feels like he may understand and know what to do.

I encounter an immediate “aha” that the majority of my life I never spend much time listening to my significant other’s feelings. All I hear are the words without the feelings behind them, or I choose not to want to know what the feelings are.

I begin replaying past situations in my mind. Immediately I start feeling my ex-girlfriend's feelings about sincerely wanting to share her joy with me about certain experiences and then I feel her rejection after I tell her that I am busy or not in the mood to listen. I feel bad about doing this because now that I feel her feelings and I understand what she is trying to convey. I now feel her joy and my response is now different.

I proceed to go through several more situations and gain more clarity and understanding about what she really wants. After a few of them I realize that all of my responses to the situations are now different than they were in the actual moment.

I make a commitment to myself to listen to the feelings that people are trying to convey to me especially when I do not understand what they are saying or if their feelings conflict with what they are saying. I now listen to the words that people are speaking along with trying to gauge their feelings about what they are conveying. I find my interactions with people improve immediately by just using this simple technique.

Today if I do not understand someone I simply ask, “what is the feeling of what you are trying to convey?” On the flip-side if someone does not understand me I now tell them how I feel. In both instances my communication improves tremendously. Words can be confusing, feelings are clear.

After 9 months of TTP I commit to attending a “breathwork” workshop. I have a tremendous life changing experience. As I begin breathing, I notice I encounter some past situations where I feel a lot of tension. I feel several parts of my body experiencing pain specifically my shoulders around my ac joints. I feel the intensity rise to the point where the pain is excruciating but I keep breathing and it suddenly dissipates.

Next, I notice myself going through all of my relationships with women starting in grade school and working up to my most recent relationship. I notice both good and bad aspects along with the feelings association with each one. I notice that my life seems to flow better with certain types of girls, pattern recognition.

I am also aware that when I get to my relationship with my ex it is hard to visualize anything. I try again and again and then I notice myself running as fast as I can and shaking my head from side to side as if I am saying no. I hear myself saying get away from this as fast as you can. You do not want this. As this is going on I notice that I exhibit the form of running and shaking my head as I am breathing. I quickly get the “aha” that I do not want anything to do with her. It feels liberating and free, I now know I can finally let go. This is truly the moment when I completely let go of her.

Next I experience my feelings about my ex’s sister and although I never date her I have strong feelings for her. It is perplexing at first, but as I let myself experience the feelings and I realize that every major fight I have with my ex is when her sister is around. Her sister ends up listening to my feelings and acts as a mediator.

I get the “aha” that my Fred sets all this drama up when her sister is there so that she will listen to my feelings because my ex does not. I also notice that she validates me as a person and validates my feelings. I like both of these qualities and note that these are the most important qualities that I wish to have in my relationship with any significant other.

Somehow I then move into flying across the mountains at sunset and I feel so at peace. It is the most euphoric feeling I ever remember experiencing. I feel no pressure, no wind, no heat or cold, just utter bliss. The colors are shades of brown, red, orange, and yellow similar to what one sees at sunset. The topography is similar to the topography of the mountains in Utah, Nevada, and Arizona.

Then all of the sudden I see a “green line” streaming upwards into the sky and immediately I think of my equity curve. It is going parabolic and it exhibits and exponential growth curve. It is going too fast for me to see the peak. I decide to grab onto to it and it is still going up too fast. I then see a rocket coming up with it and I grab onto the rocket and ride it up along side of this “green line” that I perceive as my equity curve. It is an amazing feeling to think that my equity curve can look like this and it just does not stop. There is no end in sight and I just embrace the ride.

After Breathwork is over and I come back to earth immediately start wondering if I should be with my ex’s sister. She lives in [City] and I love it there. I have many friends there and always have a great time visiting. I decide to contact her and tell her about my experience. She validates and acknowledges what I say and tells me that she is happily in a relationship and is not willing to date me. I accept what she says and decide to buy a plane ticket and start spending more time in [City] to find a girlfriend.

I recall buying the plane ticket getting really nervous and not having any idea why. The next weekend I go there and the first bar I go to on Friday night is called “Rockit.” The first girl that I feel an attraction to is across the bar and I notice her. An hour or two later I bump into her and we start talking.

I ask her where she is going and she responds, “with you.” We exchange some pleasantries and we both have extremely big smiles on our faces. I am getting very nice feelings around her. She asks me why I am in Chicago and I tell her “to find a girlfriend.” I also tell her that I am looking for a “real relationship.” She rolls her eyes and says “who isn’t!”

We talk for about 20 minutes and then she tells me to google her, and if I can find her website and send her an email she will go out with me. I go home that night and find her website and send her an email. We go to dinner two nights later. Our first date seems to go well and we talk about many things including TTP.

The next morning I fly back to Incline and she sends correspondence to Ed about talking to him about helping her ex-boyfriend. She does not know Ed. She goes to his website and sends him an email that says she is a friend of mine and has an emergency.

Ed asks her several questions including how she feels about the situation. Both she and Ed tell me about the correspondence later that day. She tells me that he asks her some very thought provoking questions specifically, “how do you feel about the situation?” She says what a great question, “how do I feel about this?”

I learn that her ex-boyfriend is a trader and lost all of his money and turns to drinking to avoid his feelings. It turns out that he shares the same first name as me. She still carries some wounds from the relationship that she wants to heal. She tells me that before she meets me that she repeats this mantra to herself, “I want a healthy [same name as mine].”

Amazingly, I show up right on cue, again, pure “Magic.”

She effectively creates a snapshot without having any knowledge of what one is and it comes to fruition immediately. I notice that she is extremely open and willing with her feelings. I have never met anyone so open and willing to share their feelings with me.

I see her the next weekend in Chicago and I notice that she keeps telling the same story over and over again. I recall doing the same thing when I separate from my ex. I ask her the same question Ed asks me in the same situation. I say to her that she keeps telling the same story over and over again. I ask her “What is the feeling?”

This question seems to agitate her and also intrigue her at the same time. Our conversation ends shortly after my question. I send her an email the next morning and tell her that I think I can support her in getting clear but she has to do all the work. Her desire and willingness are evident. She sends me an email back that says my email brings her to tears and “who does this.”

She agrees that she wants to get clear and is willing to do the work. I send her the “Trading Tribe” book. She reads it in one sitting and tells me that it is the most amazing book she has ever read.

We talk about what her feelings are and where they are in her body. I talk to her about the results = intentions model of living. Living by this model requires continuous growth. I tell her that if for any reason she does not get results that she likes that it is her problem and no one else’s.

It is a responsibility model and if she is not getting to where she wants she needs to change, not anyone else. There is a feeling that she needs to fully experience before she can get the results that she really wants.

I am struck by her understanding and desire to learn. She seems to be soaking up all of the knowledge and experience that takes me a year to gain in a few days.

She commits to come to Incline that weekend to do breathwork with me. I manage the process the same way that Ed does. I have her define her current situation, specific things she does not like about it, and her preferable situation.

When she arrives in Incline we stay up late talking about a great many things including her feelings. I support her in getting really clear on what the feelings are that are standing in her way. She develops the forms and the feelings are “live.” Then we go to bed for a few hours.

We wake around 7am and go on a hike. The plan is to go for a hike and then come back to my house and do the Breathwork. I unilaterally decide not to hike on a trail, we go bushwhacking instead. It takes us about 2 hours to hike to the top of the mountain and we are having a great time.

I anticipate it taking us about 1.5 hours to get back down. On the way down I decide to take an alternate route. Little do I know that the route I choose leads us into a chute that gets narrower and narrower until we get to a 20-25 foot cliff. We try to climb back up but there is sand on the granite that is slippery and prevents up from gaining any traction to climb up.

She quickly goes into a state of utter panic and distress. I see a way out but I am certain that it is not suitable for her nor do I think she is willing to take that route. The way out entails scaling the rock face sideways for about 10 feet into some trees and native brush and then climbing down the brush 20 feet to the ground below.

In order to do the traverse out there is less than six inches of a foot hold to shimmy across while standing upright at a 70 plus degree angle with a 20-25 drop behind.

She begins to start shaking and crying and tells me that she does not know if she can hold on. Her feet begin to shake and her eyes are shut. I realize that I am in a very precarious situation and find myself performing real time TTP on the mountain in an emergency situation. I very gently support her to feel her feelings and encourage her to embrace her feelings.

She goes with the flow and seems to be working through some feelings. She tells me that she does not trust anyone. I start thinking, "Thanks, Fred!" I like to take a little risk and she does not trust anyone. What a perfect situation for our "Fred’s" to work out a drama for both of us.

After about an hour or so I decide that the only way to get us out of here is for me to start moving and figure it out.

She panics at the onset of my movement.

Immediately she starts to gain strength and I see a way to get her out. She stands up and I get her to grab onto the rock with her left hand and show her another hand hold up another 2-3 feet for her right hand. She says that she cannot reach it and I get my hand under one of her hamstrings and literally push her straight up with one arm to safety. She is then able to climb down the trees.

As soon as we get down I assume that she is not going to want to do Breathwork because I just led her into a life threatening situation. I feel bad about the situation and extremely uneasy about how she is going to react. She blows me away and tells me that she thinks this is the best time for her to do Breathwork because her feelings are really “live” right now.

She starts making jokes and going with the flow and I cannot believe how wonderful she makes me feel. The hike ends up taking us 5 hours. What an experience for both of us.

We get back to my house and immediately start the Breathwork and she gets into it like a pro. I watch as she exhibits several forms and I can feel the waves of emotion that she experiences.

As she comes out of the process she tells me that it is the most amazing experience that she has ever had in her life. She says that the process already helps her gain so much clarity and she feels better about many things in her life. We talk about her making a commitment to help integrate her feelings and experiences. She chooses to run 4 days a week for 40 minutes for the next four weeks. She commits to sending me an email after every run.

The next day we spend a few hours with Ed talking about the weekend, her Breathwork experience, and our relationship. We talk about our foundation of honesty that we put in place from the start of our relationship. We talk about how we are taking all the knowledge that we both have been given from TTP, Breathwork, the Trading Tribe book, and from conversations with Ed into our relationship, an area where no one has gone with it before successfully.

We spend every weekend together since we met. I sign a lease and commit to an apartment in [City] and I intend on living there for the next few months. She completes her commitment and continues to running 4 days a week.

I am happy to report that her life is immeasurably changing for the better since Breathwork. Her relationships are much healthier and stronger and she is more at peace with herself and the rest of the world. She and her ex have a conversation to resolve any outstanding issues with a positive outcome.

She accepts a promotion from a competitor and moves firms. She has more deals and larger deals than she has ever had before just showing up. Our relationship just keeps getting better and better every day. 

One area that I want to get back to that continues to have an immeasurable effect on my life is the results = intentions model. This model helps me identify and focus in on what feelings I am unwilling to experience to get my preferable results. It also helps me tremendously in understanding other people. I am to see patterns of behavior that I do not see previously. This knowledge helps me attract the right people and deflect the wrong people in all interactions both personally and professionally.

I also have success in working towards achieving several snapshots. One of my snapshots involves having a “harmonious workplace.” A place where everyone in my firm is doing what they do with a smile on his face. A place where they do what they love, and love what they do. The feeling is a warm sense of harmony and caring for each other. I have this now and I have for several months. I originally set up this snapshot at a time when things are not harmonious.  

Another snapshot that I have is “$2 Billion.” This snapshot is to have $2 billion in assets under management while having the best total return performance in our high leverage product in comparison to our competitors.

The picture of it is has everyone that works for me is looking at our monthly newsletter which is on the wall of our office and reads “Assets Under Management $2,000,000,000,” next to the letter is spreadsheet documenting that our high leverage product has the best total return performance since inception in comparison to or competitors. Everyone has both of their arms in the air one for each billion with smiles on their faces. The feeling is “Yes!” I currently have the best total return performance in my high leverage product since inception. My asset growth is still a work in progress. 

The last snapshot that I have is one that I call “embracing each other’s feelings.” I am at Le Bistro, a restaurant in Incline, sitting in the back right corner booth with a girl. The girl is on my right and she is wearing a pink off the shoulder top and has her left leg wrapping around my right leg and her right hand is on my heart. We are looking into each other’s eyes with huge smiles on our faces and our cheeks hurt from smiling so much. A bottle of Turley Zinfandel wine is open and on the table along with the menus. I now know the girl in the snapshot is my girlfriend today. I do not yet have actual snapshot achievement, but all of the components are in place. 

Another concept that I want to touch on that is such a large part of the work that I feel does not get enough attention is the “now.” I never understood what it means to live in the now until, well now.

There is nothing like it! I now get to enjoy every moment of my life for what it is instead of being caught somewhere in the past or non-existent future. I learn that living in the past involves feelings of guilt and regret, and living in the non-existent future involves feelings of anxiety. I feel much more alive because I feel every emotion in the moment. I have a lot more energy, focus, and clarity. It is so much easier to see situations for what they are when you are truly in the moment of now.

When you truly live in the moment of now there is nothing else than what is happening right now. It is liberating beyond belief. I never had any idea how great it feels to embrace every moment for what it is, until now. Even when times are tough and difficult I now know that they are important times because there is a positive intention to the feelings that I am feeling in that moment of now. I now see difficult situations as opportunities for growth rather than stumbling blocks. I do not second guess anything instead I embrace my results and look for positive intentions.

I now believe that there are no mistakes, errors, or coincidences in the world. I believe in a holistic evolution and that there is a connection to everyone and everything in the universe. I believe the world is perfect and everything is the way it is for a reason. I believe that through our subconscious energy we communicate with each other in a way that is not measurable.  

Mostly, I now understand what it truly means to go with the flow. I understand how to support people by encouraging them to keep doing what they are doing. Even in situations where I can see a potentially negative outcome. I now realize that it is their path and something about it is important to them.

There is some feeling that they are trying to feel and the best way for me to support them is to encourage them to keep doing what they are doing and allow them to feel that feeling. Any interruption in their process only interrupts nature’s course and invalidates them.

Truly supporting people involves validating and encouraging their behavior. It is not always the easiest thing to do but I know it is the right thing to do. Any feelings I have contrary to doing this I take to the “hot seat” as entry points for my own personal growth.  

Thank you for sharing your process.

Wed, 21 Sep 2005

Intention Means no Accidents

Hi Ed,

Just starting to read the newspaper and I notice on the same section, there are news about

1) Woman accidentally shot on the train (when a 16-year-old boy tried to rob another passenger of his cell phone),

2) Mom accidentally ran over (and killed) his 13-year-old son, and

3) A 4-year-old toddler was hospitalized after ingesting a mixture of heroin and cocaine that he pulls out of a man's pocket.

So many "accidents"!!!

When everybody gets that we are all responsible for everything, we all attain enormous power to transform intentions to results, instantly.

When you accept where you are, now

you are at the zero point.

Clip: http://www.toothpastefordinner.com/

012404/home-by-now.gif

Wed, 21 Sep 2005

Martha Stewart

Hi Ed,

While reviewing the previous FAQ, I see that you says, "If Martha calls, I might encourage her to find a Tribe, or maybe to start one." (3/19/04)

Martha was on David Letterman last night, and she said, I did not allow myself to get depressed ... did not allow myself to get down too much."

Arguably, Martha's unwillingness to experience dirt, as in dirty dealing with inside information, leads her to try to sweep it under the carpet.

This compounds the drama until she has to experience a thoroughly messy situation.

People who see the positive intentions of their feelings of "depression" and "getting down," tend to avoid such dramas.

Impeccable Martha

may be unwilling

to experience dirt.

Clip: http://www.stonyfield.com/images/

Wed, 21 Sep 2005

Consistent

Hi Ed,


My intention is to be a consistently profitable trader.

I have been developing my trading system to achieve this objective.

My premise, based on my understanding through research, is that many trading systems work in certain types of markets but no system will work in all types of markets. If that is true - and please advise if you disagree - it would seem that to be consistently profitable one must have multiple systems for different types of trading markets (trending, consolidating, etc.) and of course a system to determine which system to use.

You might consider taking you feelings of wanting to be consistently profitable to your Tribe as an entry point.

Clip: http://www.combustioncentre.ifrf.net/

bookstore/radiation/consistenttheory-required.gif

Tue, 20 Sep 2005

Reliance on Fundamentals indicates lack of faith in trend following.

You might consider taking your fundamental stories to a Tribe meeting.

All the King's Horses and

All the King's Men

Are thinner than eggshells

When fighting a trend.

Tue, 20 Sep 2005

Even with Positive Expectation

we Get What we Expect

http://www.gsb.stanford.edu/

news/research/finance_shiv

_invesmtdecisions.shtml

Investment Behavior

and the Negative Side of Emotion
 

by Baba Shiv, George Loewenstein, Antoine Bechara, Hanna Damasio, and Antonio R. Damasio

The risk-prone group bets heavier in both games.  In the positive expectation game they do better than average.  In negative expectation games they do worse.

The editorial slant, from the Times (see psychopath, below) emphasizes the first test and then extrapolates that risk-taking psychopaths make good traders.

I wonder if this kind of "risky science" qualifies the writers to bear their own label.

Baba Shiv, Psycho-Economist

May have few k-nots

 about risk taking.

Clip: http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/

Tue, 20 Sep 2005

Mon, 19 Sep 2005

Major Feelings

Hi Ed,

I write today because I have an experience over the weekend which brings up huge feelings. Bigger than drawdown. I am caught off guard and feel very vulnerable.

I was at a party that was attended by a number of people whom I've known for a great long time, but rarely see anymore. The primary reason I do not see these people is that I have a falling out with a couple of individuals who are central to a big part of the group in attendance.

While the differences between myself and one of these individuals are largely dissipated, and carry little or no emotional charge, the emotions that I have toward the other individual are apparently still brimming over.

This individual is a former very close and trusted friend. I give this person an opportunity to go into business with myself and someone else on a venture away from my trading some years ago.

The end result is this person, as the operator of this business, forces me to exit as a matter of prudence. Essentially, when this person got himself entrenched in the workings of this venture, he made it impossible to deal with him in a practical manner, and I had to forgo the fruits that the venture would ultimately bear.

 
I consciously resent and have deep disdain for this person and know that there is a major k-not there. Over time I believe that this k-not is becoming untied, through my TTP work and other personal development efforts.

However, when I arrive at this party and see this person there, Fred goes frigging nuts. I am immediately self conscious. I am tentative in my conversations with other people. I feel almost short of breath.

I feel anger, resentment, and frustration. Blood is rushing to my head. I am completely nervous. How could this person have the audacity to be in the same place as me given what he did? How can this guy stand there relaxed in the same room as someone who had done so much to help him and that he screwed over? Thinking about it makes me seethe.

I want to get rid of the seething. I want to be rid of the resentment. I want to be able to see this person and have no emotional response, other than to understand that this is a person I do not want to have anything further to do with (though what I really want is to inflict harm-stupid).

For the last year or so I try to get into my feelings as they come up in my trading. I suffer from the common malady where my emotions are ridiculously correlated with my equity curve.

Having an emotional response like the one I have at this party feels like it comes from left field. I am unprepared for this emotional response. It is almost as though I am in a panic. What is more disconcerting is that the feelings are still here two days later. I know that there is a major issue here, and if I don't take care of the feelings there is going to be trouble, and I do not want this trouble to manifest itself in a destructive way.

What is really unsettling, is that when my drawdown starts I know the feeling. I still don't like the feeling, but I recognize it and see it as an ally. I have gotten rather good at recognizing feelings as they arise and understanding their origin and intent.

With the feelings I have this weekend, I don't know what to do. I really want to take flight. I stay at this party and make conversation, but I am remarkably uncomfortable and do not really want to be there. I talk about the situation with my wife on the way home that evening, but even though she is sympathetic and shares many of the same feelings, I feel uncomfortable discussing the issue.

I feel like a whiner. I think I should be able to size up the situation and deal with it without going aflutter.

Thank you for sharing your process.

You might consider taking your feelings to your Tribe and following through until you can appreciate the positive intention of these feelings. 

One Positive Intention of Anger

is

Risk Control

Clip: http://www.blikopdeweg.nl/Reageer/ANGER.gif

Mon, 19 Sep 2005

FAQ question and TSP run through


Hello,


I'd first like to thank you for running such an excellent website. I thought your article on risk management was excellent and the clearest explanation of the subject I've ever encountered. I get it in a way I didn't before. The FAQ is also an excellent resource so, thank you for taking the time to work on that and keep pace with all the questions you get.

I have a question for the FAQ. As I was implementing the EA system from the TSP project to see if I could duplicate the example results I noticed something. Heat and the ATR_Multiplier are each only used once, and they are both used in the same formula.

Consequently neither number individually influences the results, rather it's the ratio of the two that does. Heat of .1 and ATR_Mult of 5 give exactly the same results as heat of 1 and ATR_Mult of 50.

Heat is different from ATR.

Heat

measures your aggressiveness

ATR

measures the market's volatility

Note: The current project on TSP uses support and resistance lines to determine risk, so the system uses Heat and not ATR. 

Clip: http://www.smh.com.au/ffxImage/

urlpicture_id_1075088082004_2004/

01/28/summerfashion.jpg

Mon, 19 Sep 2005

Back-testing, Schrödinger's Cat, and TTP


Why do people rigorously back-test trading systems only to find that sometimes the system fails in real time? Here's a thought that I would like you to comment on:

Schroedinger was a physicist who proposed the following experiment (with all due respect to animal rights): Place a cat in a box with some radioactive material and a vial of poison. If an atom of the radioactive material decays, the vial of poison will break open and the cat will die. There is a 50% probability of an atom decaying in one hour. After one hour will the cat be alive or dead?

Schroedinger's answer: both until the box is opened and the cat is observed.

This is similar to Heisenbergs Uncertainty Principle, where the Observer affects the outcome of an experiment.

In back-testing a system we use historical data. This data is fixed and static. In real time (now) markets are dynamic.

Can it be that our system, acting as the Observer affects the market and will have totally different results than the backtesting depending on what we want to get out of the markets?

And, more importantly, can we use the TTP (intention=results) so that our systems will observe and affect the outcome of the markets in a way that is favorable to our equity curve?

If so a trading system is more than an algorithm and must be approached in a holistic manner.

Your comments please.

Here's a link showing how the Uncertainty Principle can be active in respect to market regulation:
http://www.pff.org/irle/

You imply that if you back-test a system, you have an entitlement to make money on every trade.

You imply that now markets somehow behave differently from all historical records of markets.

If you put a million professors in front of a million typewriters you pretty much get this kind of mumbly-bumbly, including lot of applications for grants to pile it higher and deeper (Ph. D.)

Clip: http://www.phys.psu.edu/~scalise/misc/cat.gif

Mon, 19 Sep 2005

Wanted: Psychopaths to Play the Stock Market

Interesting article!

People with poor risk control tend to bet heavy. So they tend to outperform others in good markets, and under-perform them in poor ones.

Neuro-economists write long papers about this sort of thing.

Academicians, who live on tax money, tend to view risk-takers who pay their salaries, as somewhat psychopathic. 

A Neuro-Economist

making an economic decision,

Clip: http://www.bbc.co.uk/learning/

Mon, 19 Sep 2005

Greetings all,

It's been awhile (if you believe that the now moves). On my return to [City] in August, my Trading Tribe decided to reconvene at my apartment . They asked me to be their chief again. I accepted.

To catch you up, a couple of meetings ago we were pollinated by the presence of [Name] of the Incline Village Tribe. His style - a take no prisoner approach to TTP - is in sharp contrast to my own (how shall I put this) more gentle and subtle approach.

The tribe really appreciated the contrast and the give and take between us. All of them said it was the best meeting yet. (And they have been saying that about the last several meetings. Sounds like a trend to me.) To the point, our visitor caught my "wanting to know / not wanting to know" bind and the tribe jumped right on it. I had a transformational session in which I got a lot clearer about (and willing to find out) what I need to do to create a home for my family.

The next meeting was dedicated to finding our 'core issues' in preparation for a breath work day this coming weekend. As I was leading the meeting, I didn't think I would take the hot seat. And when I did, all this stuff came out about having to know and not being able to know. The tribe was really good at creating a healing field of acknowledgement and a warrior level of integrity at insisting I face this.

Good Work !

Wed, 14 Sep 2005

Tue, 13 Sep 2005

TABOR

Taxpayer Bill of Rights

In Nevada, land prices are skyrocketing. This has created a tremendous increase in property assessments and unrealized gains for all property owners .

Today, under current law, this also generates tremendous windfall increases in local and state government revenues from property taxes. This is unfair to all property owners, especially homeowners on fixed incomes. After all, you cannot just sell your home to pay your property tax. Where would you live?

Even worse is the impact windfall revenue will have on state and local governments. Based upon their past behavior, we can expect them to spend their windfall tax revenues hiring new employees, further bloating government job rolls and setting us up for a "budget crisis" when revenue returns to a reasonable level of growth.

OK.

Sat, 17 Sep 2005

Validity is a judgment as to whether something complies with some or another set of rules.

A signal may be valid, if it indeed issues from the system.  The method itself, and its metrics are neither valid or invalid.

If you wish to study the math in more detail, see resources at the TSP page.

Go Figure

http://www.tc.nagasaki.go.jp/techinfo/

ee/fujimoto/report/image/contour/

Sat, 17 Sep 2005

Fri, 16 Sep 2005

Man-Made Disaster


Ed,

(from an article by by Robert Tracinski)

Public officials did not expect that the first thing they would have to do is to send thousands of armed troops in armored vehicle, as if they are suppressing an enemy insurgency. And journalists—myself included—did not expect that the story would not be about rain, wind, and flooding, but about rape, murder, and looting.

But this is not a natural disaster. It is a man-made disaster.

The man-made disaster is not an inadequate or incompetent response by federal relief agencies, and it was not directly caused by Hurricane Katrina. This is where just about every newspaper and television channel has gotten the story wrong.

The man-made disaster we are now witnessing in New Orleans did not happen over four days last week. It happened over the past four decades. Hurricane Katrina merely exposed it to public view.

The man-made disaster is the welfare state.
 

The positive intention of fear is risk control.

People who are unwilling to experience fear tend to take big risks and wind up in big drama in which the risk materializes.

If you build a house below sea-level you risk getting wet.

Government programs that enable people to avoid the feelings of risk - only tend to raise delinquency to higher levels.

Helping People

avoid their feelings of insecurity

by insuring the non-existing future.

Note: the Coverage Ratio,

in the world of now,

is around 1%.

Fri, 16 Sep 2005

Fri, 16 Sep 2005

Reflections

OK.

Fri, 16 Sep 2005

Typo


Dear Ed,

Thu, 15 Sep 2005

Thu, 15 Sep 2005