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New York - November 15, 2003


October 12-18, 2003



(Quotes from Ed in Red)


Sat, 18 Oct 2003


How about Schwartz?


Mr. Seykota stated in article "Day trading" from 8 October:


... If you know a consistently profitable day trader you might encourage him to share his audited track record and method. As far as
I know, none such exists.

So how about Martin Schwartz ?



Schwartz wrote about his trading experiences in Pit Bull


One way to break an addiction is to get Fred and CM talking about it.



As his success on Wall Street grew, he began his own fund in which he would manage other people's money as well as his own, a move he would regret. The stress of running the fund contributed to his developing pericarditis, which nearly killed him.


His doctors advised him to slow down his lifestyle, so at the age of 48, Schwartz, along with his wife and two children, moved to Florida where he took up golf and developed a daily routine that allowed him to keep trading, but at a more relaxed pace.


This is one of those rare autobiographies where the subject unintentionally portrays himself in an unfavorable light. As he grew ever richer, Schwartz became consumed with generating even more money and prestige so that he could "run with the top dogs." Inadvertently, he has written a cautionary tale on the dangers of being addicted to money and power.


-- Publishers Weekly reprint on www.amazon.com


Fri, 17 Oct 2003


Incline Village Tribe member visits the Manhattan group

Hello Ed,

A member of your Incline Village Tribe recently visited Manhattan. He was very gracious to take time off from his busy schedule to have dinner with us and then after dinner joined us for our tribe meeting. He shared many of his own experience with us, provided much valuable information on the correct way to do TTP.

I took the hot seat that night. I had a profound experience, the Incline Village member actively participated in being a receiver, we all learned a lot from him. Fred has many allies and they seem to show up at the right time !

Between the two groups in Manhattan we now have six meetings a month. It did take us a while to tone down the story telling and focus just on feelings and bodily sensations. However now the results are nothing short of spectacular. We can visibly see the person start to get transformed before our eyes when Fred makes his appearance.

Best Regards

Yes.  Members from one Tribe seem to fit in well well with others, and help cross-pollinate.




Learning 2 B



Clip: www.fungrams.com/


Fri, 17 Oct 2003



Dear e-tribe friends,

I want you to know that I am traveling to USA to participate in the TTP workshop in Reno.


This will be my first non e-TTP experience . I am very excited, curious and intimidated (all together) for this Workshop, but I'm sure it will be very valuable. I will not be participating in the tribe mailing during my travel, but I will be back in November.


Thu, 16 Oct 2003

Free Trade


Dear Ed,

Your theory about free trade is very interesting. 


Could you could give an example of what you mean by "entitlements"?

Yes.  Those who oppose free trade typically wish to protect or establish "entitlements" to sell at prices above competitive free market.

While such price support strategies may seem to work (for vendors) in the short term, shielding an industry from competition de-motivates long-term innovation and efficiency.

Restrictions against free communication (between producers and consumers; between Fred and CM), tend to weaken the entire system.



The Best Trade Policy


Let the Traders Handle It.


Clip: www.amatecon.com/etext/ cftoi/cftoi

Thu, 16 Oct 2003


Position Sizing


Hi ho, Ed,

Today I got an email saying "I owe you one for ABAX." because two months ago I recommended buying at $8. Today it closed at $18.84.


That's ok, but my real AHA is applying what you taught me Friday about position sizing to a stock like this. Annotated chart is attached, and my analysis of your teaching:

(A) Buy at $8 with $7 stop in a portfolio with core equity of $62,000. Risk 1% = $620.

So 620/$1 = 620 shares.

At $9.16 we have $719 profit.

(B) So to add, we find our new logical stop, which is $7.99. (9.16-7.99)= 1.17, divided into the profit of 719, we can buy 614 more shares and have a risk-less breakeven exit.

(D) Today we would’ve been stopped out at 16.99 unless we had pulled the stop for the first half hour, as it spiked down and spent the rest of the day climbing to new highs. In that case we are still long at 18.84. Current situation then is:

(18.84 - 8) * 620 = $6,720 profit on original position, and (18.84 - 9.16) * 614 = $5,943 on additional position ... so a total of $12,664 in a $62,000 porftolio, or +20% in two months.

Now I imagine one could continue to add:

(C) To add a second time at the next new high, we find our new stop which is $8.99. We enter at 9.71, so the difference is 72 cents.

Our profit at this buy is ((9.71 – 8) * 620 shares )+( (9.71 – 9.16) * 614 shares) = $1,397.

$1,397 / 0.72 = 1,940 new shares. We are now long 3,174 shares at an average price of $9.27 with no capital risk.

Additional profit as of today on that third add is (18.84- 9.71) * 1,940 shares = $17,712.

Add that to the profit of $12,664, and we get $30,376, or 49% return on capital from this trade.

With your method, I can be wrong 9 out of 10 times, and if those stops are at 1%, even allowing for skid, an account can make plenty of money.

I'm getting the idea !

Yes ... The idea is to control initial entry risk ... profits take care of themselves ... occasionally you might get a big winner, as you seem to demonstrate.


Sometimes it also pays to notice the degree to which the press discounts the move ... especially through magazine covers and jokes.




Markets Move


until there is nothing more to discount.

Thu, 16 Oct 2003


The Trader's Window

Hi Ed,

I apologize if someone has already asked this question unfortunately your website does not have a search function. You wrote the prologue in the book “The New Market Wizards”. Is that story a segment of a larger piece of work that has been published? If so is it available?

I look forward to reading your new book. Can you give us an update on when you expect it to be available?

Congratulations and keep up the great work on your fantastic web site! Go Ed, you da man ;-)

I don't pre-dict the non-existing future.


I mostly simul-dict things as they occur.






Pointing out the Fuchsia



Clip: http://www.sudberry.com/301.jpg

Wed, 15 Oct 2003

Hi Ed,

I have been a professional trader for 10 years, and one aspect of my trading that keeps coming up is self-sabotage. I am trying very hard to realize the reason for this but am unable to.


I am extremely depressed by this.


How do I figure out this problem with my sub-conscious? I am currently not in a tribe as there is none in my country. Thank you for your advice.

Realizing reasons and figuring things out are tools of fundamental analysis.


Trend Following simply rides along with the flow.


There is nothing to figure out.


Simply ride along with your feelings and allow Fred to communicate your experience to CM.



Going with the Flow


Clip: http://www.frogz.co.nz/

Tue, 14 Oct 2003


Chartbook 95

Dear Mr. Seykota:

I used to be a subscriber to Technical Tools end-of-day prices and used the Chartbook 95 program. When I bought the subscription I also received a 25-year commodity history file.

I have recently begun trading again and would like to be able to use the Chartbook95 program to view this historical data (I don't need to purchase current data), however, the program has an date expiration date and therefore no longer works.

Do you sell or offer a license to update this program so I can use it again?

You might contact Troy Barber at troy@oowdg.com

Tue, 14 Oct 2003




every day ... things are getting faster, all of my friends, say go ahead and ask her ...

Every day there are 20+ new all-time highs from which to choose. It's a cornucopia these days.

Yes. Life can be a cornucopia of opportunity.


When you work through your unresolved dramas, what's left is to simply ride along with the trends of life.




for those willing to have it


Clip: www.mnh.si.edu/garden/ history/welcome.html

Tue, 14 Oct 2003


I have been an full-time independent trader for 5 years where I have been making fantastic money for the past 5 years without a losing week! For the past 8 months however i have made very little money.


The opportunities I use to find no longer seem to exist. While I don't follow a true trend trading methodology, and am more of an arbitrage trader, I am in a very bad place mentally right now as opportunity has dried up.


I have evaluated trend trading systems historically, and am unable to deal with the risk that they could possibly incur. Any advice for someone who is has been so risk averse for so long?


I know what risk levels I am comfortable with and it seems to have a lot to do with how confident I am in my methodology.


But trading trends is so different than what I used to do. I fear I might not make it as a trader anymore. Any input would be greatly appreciated.

You might take your feeling about your trading ability into TTP and find out what Fred is trying to tell CM.




Some see water and some see dry.



Clip: http://www.sunspot.net/news/



Tue, 14 Oct 2003


Nightmare effect

Dear Ed,

I have been reading about TTP for a while now and I'm very impressed with the results described by its participants (I read every experience described in FAQ). I was already planning to start it by the end of the year (after my partner finishes a project in which he is involved right now) when I experienced something that really amazed me because of its similarity to the TTP participants' descriptions: a nightmare.

In the past, for several times I sabotaged myself in a situation that keeps coming back in different variations. Those sabotages caused me a lot of pain and emotional damage. As the end of the year is approaching, I identified the beginning of the same situation (although in a different variation) - which could cause me the same damage all over again, but, of course, CM was avoiding it.

Last night, I had this very INTENSE frightening scary nightmare which made me experience that fear I (CM) was avoiding and when I woke up I had this incredible, amazing AHA which made me feel extremely good and happy about that nightmare and about myself.


I have no words to describe it. Together with that incredible sensation I also felt a very annoying headache (which lasted for 5 minutes approximately), my mouth and throat were very dry and I also was a little dizzy. After a shower and a glass of water, everything was normalized.

That was when I remembered all the descriptions from FAQ and I thought that what I had just experienced could be the same thing as the TTP.


Well, Ed, people can enter a comma by a trauma (an accident, for example) or be induced by doctors to it. What I'm thinking right now is that TTP can be a form of inducing this kind of constructive nightmare that I had (as well as its positive effects). After last night's nightmare, I really learned what I was doing to myself and what would be the natural consequences of my self-sabotage. I though: I f I could induce my self to this kind of nightmare again... then it stroke me: TTP!

I really would like to hear your thoughts about this event and if is there an indirect relationship between this experience and TTP. Thank you very much.

I wish you all the best.


Fred intends to inform CM about what Fred experiences. 


This may occasion an AHA.  The flow of experience between Fred and CM naturally occurs just in the process of life itself.


When CM develops judgment and unwillingness, CM may resist Fred's  communications.  If so, Fred tends to turn up the volume to get CM's attention.


You may have daydreams, dreams and nightmares.


If CM continues to resist the message, Fred may continue to turn up the volume, perhaps enroll you in repetitive real world dramas.


TTP intends to enhance the flow of experience between between Fred and CM.  Over time, this tends to increase natural wisdom and decrease the level of drama.






Just Fred

trying to communicate

experience to CM



Clip: http://www.artie.com/cm/art/artists/



Mon, 13 Oct 2003


Computer Program

Dear Ed:

My friend put together a computer program with my market guidance and his computer savvy. I have been finding many more opportunities than usual. Thanks for the idea of using a computer generated program!

About my e-mail to you on Wed, Oct 1 titled up 100%. You said I might want to check my Sharp and Sterling ratios. My volatility is huge but getting better with your help, my annual performance compared to the market is good. I am still figuring my trades for the year so I don't have the actual ratios yet.


Computers are particularly useful for scanning lots of stocks and finding the ones that are trending.






It lets the water pass through

and catches the pasta.


Clip: http://holmesequipment.com/


Sun, 12 Oct 2003


At One with the Knot


I am beginning to wonder if I even trade to make money, at times I seem to acknowledge the fact that this is a perverted game of me vs. myself.


The desire to win seems to take a back seat to a desire to let the game play out in its usual ways with amazingly consistent outcomes.


It seems almost futile to continue trading unless I can resolve my personal battle. My belief and commitment to trading success seems to hinge on the resolution of this battle.


Oh how I try to figure it out, engaging in endless loops of futile thinking that in the end, seems to be part of the game (drama).


Why is it that trading success feels almost unattainable to me at times, especially after my drama unfolds, which is always after a run of good trading. What is it that Fred is trying to communicate to me? Why can I not see the forest for the trees? Why does my knot feel bigger than me? Why do I feel like my knot is me?

Fundamentalists like to ask and answer why questions and generate reasons.


Trend Followers simply go with the flow.


See TTP Process, above.


You might take your feelings about wanting to figure it all out into TTP.




Something to Figure Out


Rearrange the pieces

to show a profit of one square.


Clip: http://www.antilles.k12.vi.us/